Lausanne vs FC Thun: model vs market
| Source | Lausanne | Draw | FC Thun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Published | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.27.
- The market prices Lausanne below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lausanne vs FC Thun odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lausanne, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lausanne | 2.47 | 2.46 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.60 | -0.08 |
| FC Thun | 2.51 | 2.51 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lausanne and FC Thun expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Lausanne / FC Thun)
- 0.91 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Lausanne / FC Thun)
- 0.88 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lausanne vs FC Thun score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lausanne goals. Columns: FC Thun goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lausanne vs FC Thun goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lausanne vs FC Thun
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lausanne | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| FC Thun | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lausanne or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Thun) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lausanne win by 2+ | 33% | 3.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lausanne and FC Thun recent form
Lausanne
1W 0D 5L
FC Thun
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lausanne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Thun away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lausanne at home only, FC Thun away only.
Expected lineups
Lausanne lineup · 3-4-3
- 90 M. Mastil
- 31 N. Cozza
- 71 K. Sow
- 4 É. Youté
- 18 M. Poaty
- 10 O. Custodio
- 29 A. Blin
- 2 B. Soppy
- 9 E. Molébé
- 78 Omar Janneh
- 11 N. Butler-Oyedeji
Bench: T. Castella, D. Ngonzo, A. Ajdini, S. Traore, T. Cordier, Papa Souleymane N'Diaye, I. Bah Mendes Mayala, S. Koné, F. Mollet
FC Thun lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 N. Steffen
- 2 O. Mambwa
- 23 M. Bürki
- 19 J. Bamert
- 47 F. Fehr
- 15 P. Kristal
- 14 M. Käit
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 9 F. Dursun
- 96 B. Labeau
Bench: N. Bürgy, J. Roth, R. Braschi, T. Spycher, N. Christoffersson, N. Maier, L. Dähler, Adam Ilic, S. Lengen
Lausanne vs FC Thun head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lausanne 4 · draws 3 · FC Thun 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | FC Thun | 0-0 | Lausanne | Switzerland Super League |
| 2026-02-12 | FC Thun | 5-1 | Lausanne | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-11-30 | Lausanne | 2-1 | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-08-03 | FC Thun | 2-1 | Lausanne | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-03-20 | Lausanne | 2-2 | FC Thun | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-01-05 | Lausanne | 3-0 | FC Thun | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-05-19 | FC Thun | 3-3 | Lausanne | Challenge League |
| 2023-03-19 | Lausanne | 1-3 | FC Thun | Challenge League |
| 2023-01-21 | Lausanne | 4-1 | FC Thun | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-10-21 | Lausanne | 2-1 | FC Thun | Challenge League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- FC ST. Gallen v Servette FC — match page 2026-10-31
- Grasshoppers vs FC Vaduz — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- FC Luzern vs FC Sion 2026-10-31
- BSC Young Boys v FC Zurich — match page 2026-11-01
- FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Lausanne, previous: FC Sion vs Lausanne: odds and pick
- Lausanne, next: Grasshoppers – Lausanne, 2026-11-07
- FC Thun, previous: FC Thun – FC Lugano, 2026-10-25
- FC Thun, next: FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction