FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 preview
In the upcoming match between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Thun at 43%, while FC Basel stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, which occurs with a 7% probability. This suggests a close contest, but the recent form of both teams could impact the outcome, as FC Thun has recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches compared to FC Basel's 3 wins.
The expected goals are nearly identical, with FC Thun at 2.04 and FC Basel at 2.05, indicating a potentially high-scoring match. Our model predicts over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 77%. However, the confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the predictions.
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893: model vs market
| Source | FC Thun | Draw | FC Basel 1893 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Published | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Thun, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.86 | 3.88 | +0.02 |
| FC Basel 1893 | 2.99 | 2.94 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.09
- Attack rating (FC Thun / FC Basel 1893)
- 1.11 / 0.98
- Defence rating (FC Thun / FC Basel 1893)
- 1.33 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Thun goals. Columns: FC Basel 1893 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Thun | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| FC Basel 1893 | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.31 |
| No | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Thun or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Basel 1893) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Thun win by 2+ | 22% | 4.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 recent form
FC Thun
1W 1D 4L
FC Basel 1893
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Thun at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
FC Basel 1893 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Thun at home only, FC Basel 1893 away only.
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: FC Thun 2 · draws 0 · FC Basel 1893 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | FC Basel 1893 | 4-2 | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League |
| 2026-05-02 | FC Basel 1893 | 3-1 | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League |
| 2026-04-18 | FC Thun | 3-1 | FC Basel 1893 | Switzerland Super League |
| 2026-02-01 | FC Basel 1893 | 1-2 | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-09-13 | FC Thun | 1-3 | FC Basel 1893 | Switzerland Super League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- FC Luzern v BSC Young Boys — match page 2026-11-07
- FC Vaduz vs FC Sion — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Grasshoppers vs Lausanne — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano 2026-11-08
- Servette FC vs FC Zurich 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC Thun, previous: FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian prediction
- FC Basel 1893, previous: FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 prediction