FC Thun vs FC Lugano: model vs market
| Source | FC Thun | Draw | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7% | 12% | 81% |
| Market | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Published | 21% | 20% | 59% |
| Edge | -4% | -3% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.47 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +7.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Thun vs FC Lugano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Lugano, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 3.41 | 3.68 | +0.27 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.10 | +0.05 |
| FC Lugano | 1.88 | 1.81 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Thun and FC Lugano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.57
- Attack rating (FC Thun / FC Lugano)
- 0.90 / 1.82
- Defence rating (FC Thun / FC Lugano)
- 1.22 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Thun vs FC Lugano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Thun goals. Columns: FC Lugano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Thun vs FC Lugano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Thun vs FC Lugano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Thun | 21% | 4.77 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.99 | |
| FC Lugano | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 6.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Thun or draw) | 41% | 2.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Lugano) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win by 2+ | 65% | 1.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Thun and FC Lugano recent form
FC Thun
1W 1D 4L
FC Lugano
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Thun at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
FC Lugano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Thun at home only, FC Lugano away only.
Expected lineups
FC Thun lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 N. Steffen
- 18 T. Strannegård
- 5 N. Bürgy
- 54 L. Passavant
- 47 F. Fehr
- 30 N. Maier
- 13 N. Zoukit
- 16 J. Roth
- 70 N. Reichmuth
- 9 F. Dursun
- 96 B. Labeau
Bench: M. Käit, P. Kristal, A. Balaruban, R. Braschi, T. Spycher, N. Christoffersson, L. Dähler, Adam Ilic, S. Lengen
FC Lugano lineup · 3-4-3
- 16 D. von Ballmoos
- 3 H. Delcroix
- 4 D. Kelvin
- 17 L. Mai
- 21 Y. Cimignani
- 8 A. Grgić
- 25 U. Bislimi
- 2 B. Karimov
- 24 E. Pihlström
- 91 K. Behrens
- 30 D. Moncada
Bench: E. Alioski, A. Ajeti, A. Kendouci, J. Bichsel, B. Castro, Martim Marques, Daniel Dos Santos, F. Gebhardt, M. Zanotti
FC Thun vs FC Lugano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Thun 3 · draws 2 · FC Lugano 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | FC Thun | 0-1 | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League |
| 2026-04-04 | FC Lugano | 1-0 | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-11-22 | FC Thun | 0-1 | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-07-27 | FC Lugano | 1-2 | FC Thun | Switzerland Super League |
| 2022-02-10 | FC Thun | 3-4 | FC Lugano | Schweizer Cup |
| 2020-07-15 | FC Lugano | 1-1 | FC Thun | Super League |
| 2020-02-09 | FC Thun | 3-2 | FC Lugano | Super League |
| 2019-11-24 | FC Thun | 0-3 | FC Lugano | Super League |
| 2019-07-28 | FC Lugano | 0-0 | FC Thun | Super League |
| 2019-05-11 | FC Thun | 1-0 | FC Lugano | Super League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- FC Zurich v FC Luzern — match page 2026-10-24
- Servette FC vs FC Vaduz 2026-10-24
- BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- FC Basel 1893 v Grasshoppers — match page 2026-10-25
- FC Sion vs Lausanne 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- FC Thun, previous: FC Thun – HNK Hajduk Split, 2026-10-22
- FC Thun, next: Lausanne vs FC Thun prediction
- FC Lugano, previous: Getafe – FC Lugano, 2026-10-22
- FC Lugano, next: FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 prediction