Updated

Switzerland Super League · Matchday 10

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern

· Cornaredo, Lugano· Referee Anojen Kanagasingam

Full time4 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Lugano to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC LuganoDrawFC Luzern

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC LuganoDrawFC Luzern
Model70%16%13%
Market58%21%21%
Published61%20%19%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Lugano, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.60Now 1.60 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Lugano1.601.60+0.00
Draw4.424.42+0.01
FC Luzern4.474.50+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Lugano and FC Luzern expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.90FC Lugano
1.28FC Luzern
Total expected goals
4.18
Attack rating (FC Lugano / FC Luzern)
1.65 / 1.27
Defence rating (FC Lugano / FC Luzern)
0.63 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1 3.9% 6.2% 3.6% 1.5% 0.7% 2 6.4% 8.2% 5.3% 2.2% 0.9% 3 6.2% 8.0% 5.1% 2.2% 0.9% 4+ 9.2% 11.8% 7.5% 3.2% 1.4%

Rows: FC Lugano goals. Columns: FC Luzern goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 79%
Over 3.5 60%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Lugano vs FC Luzern

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Lugano61%1.64
Draw20%5.02
FC Luzern19%5.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579%1.27
Under 2.521%4.70
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.20
Double chance1X (FC Lugano or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or FC Luzern)39%2.57
Handicap -1FC Lugano win by 2+51%1.96
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Lugano and FC Luzern recent form

FC Lugano 5W 1D 0L
FC Luzern 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Lugano at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-0
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
2.80
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

FC Luzern away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Lugano at home only, FC Luzern away only.

Expected lineups

FC Lugano lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 16 D. von Ballmoos
  2. 3 H. Delcroix
  3. 17 L. Mai
  4. 6 A. Papadopoulos
  5. 46 M. Zanotti
  6. 27 Daniel Dos Santos
  7. 8 A. Grgić
  8. 2 B. Karimov
  9. 21 Y. Cimignani
  10. 11 R. Steffen
  11. 9 A. Ajeti

Bench: D. Kelvin, E. Alioski, A. Kendouci, J. Bichsel, B. Castro, Martim Marques, F. Gebhardt, D. Moncada, K. Behrens

FC Luzern lineup · 4-2-2-2

  1. 30 K. Letica
  2. 22 R. Fernandes
  3. 5 S. Knežević
  4. 13 B. Freimann
  5. 6 L. Bertone
  6. 80 Mio Zimmermann
  7. 11 M. Di Giusto
  8. 24 T. Owusu
  9. 16 O. tshikomb
  10. 19 D. Mikołajewski

Bench: S. Simoni, A. Oehlers, A. Grbić, Lucas Ferreira, N. Toggenburger, P. Dorn, L. Lüthi, L. Villiger, Levin Winkler

FC Lugano vs FC Luzern head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Lugano 7 · draws 0 · FC Luzern 3.

FC LuganoDrawsFC Luzern
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-07FC Lugano1-3FC LuzernSwitzerland Super League
2026-01-17FC Luzern2-5FC LuganoSwitzerland Super League
2025-10-30FC Lugano2-0FC LuzernSwitzerland Super League
2025-05-04FC Luzern0-2FC LuganoSuper League
2025-02-15FC Lugano2-0FC LuzernSuper League
2024-12-07FC Luzern1-4FC LuganoSuper League
2024-08-11FC Lugano2-3FC LuzernSuper League
2024-03-03FC Luzern0-1FC LuganoSuper League
2023-12-03FC Lugano1-0FC LuzernSuper League
2023-09-03FC Luzern3-2FC LuganoSuper League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match