Updated

Switzerland Super League · Matchday 11

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern

· Swissporarena, Lucerne· Referee Nico Gianforte

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Luzern to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC ZurichDrawFC Luzern

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC ZurichDrawFC Luzern
Model36%23%40%
Market37%25%38%
Published37%24%39%
Edge0%0%+1%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Luzern, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 2.33Now 2.47 +0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Zurich2.552.51-0.04
Draw3.903.82-0.08
FC Luzern2.332.47+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Zurich and FC Luzern expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78FC Zurich
1.89FC Luzern
Total expected goals
3.67
Attack rating (FC Zurich / FC Luzern)
0.96 / 1.08
Defence rating (FC Zurich / FC Luzern)
1.11 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 4.0% 4.5% 2.9% 2.1% 1 3.7% 9.4% 8.1% 5.1% 3.7% 2 4.0% 7.6% 7.2% 4.5% 3.3% 3 2.4% 4.5% 4.3% 2.7% 2.0% 4+ 1.6% 3.0% 2.9% 1.8% 1.3%

Rows: FC Zurich goals. Columns: FC Luzern goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Zurich vs FC Luzern

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Zurich37%2.70
Draw24%4.12
FC Luzern39%2.59
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.44
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.40
No29%3.50
Double chance1X (FC Zurich or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or FC Luzern)63%1.59
Handicap -1FC Luzern win by 2+22%4.47
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Zurich and FC Luzern recent form

FC Zurich 2W 2D 2L
FC Luzern 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Zurich at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.20
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.

FC Luzern away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Zurich at home only, FC Luzern away only.

Expected lineups

FC Zurich lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 44 S. Walker
  2. 42 A. Hack
  3. 2 L. Kamberi
  4. 21 L. Schodler
  5. 11 U. Emmanuel
  6. 8 L. Comenencia
  7. 38 M. Reichmuth
  8. 17 K. Spadanuda
  9. 19 P. Keny

Bench: J. Segura, H. Lindner, N. Di Giusto, M. Bangoura, V. Berisha, N. Volken, J. Stiel, D. Ihendu, D. Ramić

FC Luzern lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 30 K. Letica
  2. 14 A. Cigaņiks
  3. 13 B. Freimann
  4. 20 P. Dorn
  5. 11 M. Di Giusto
  6. 24 T. Owusu
  7. 80 Mio Zimmermann
  8. 10 Lucas Ferreira
  9. 19 D. Mikołajewski
  10. 16 O. tshikomb

Bench: S. Simoni, S. Knežević, A. Oehlers, A. Grbić, N. Toggenburger, L. Lüthi, R. Fernandes, L. Villiger, Levin Winkler

FC Zurich vs FC Luzern head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Zurich 4 · draws 3 · FC Luzern 3.

FC ZurichDrawsFC Luzern
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-12FC Luzern1-0FC ZurichSwitzerland Super League
2026-02-14FC Zurich1-4FC LuzernSwitzerland Super League
2025-11-08FC Zurich3-2FC LuzernSwitzerland Super League
2025-08-03FC Luzern1-1FC ZurichSwitzerland Super League
2025-03-15FC Zurich3-2FC LuzernSuper League
2025-01-26FC Luzern3-1FC ZurichSuper League
2024-09-01FC Zurich1-1FC LuzernSuper League
2024-02-18FC Luzern0-1FC ZurichSuper League
2023-12-10FC Zurich1-1FC LuzernSuper League
2023-10-01FC Luzern1-4FC ZurichSuper League

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match