Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda

· AIL Arena, Lugano· Referee F. Badstubner

Full time3 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Lugano to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC LuganoDrawFK Crvena Zvezda

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC LuganoDrawFK Crvena Zvezda
Model57%24%19%
Market41%26%32%
Published45%26%29%
Edge+4%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.02.
  • The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Lugano, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.76Now 2.26 -0.50
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Lugano2.762.26-0.50
Draw3.523.54+0.02
FK Crvena Zvezda2.372.89+0.52

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.91FC Lugano
1.02FK Crvena Zvezda
Total expected goals
2.93
Attack rating (FC Lugano / FK Crvena Zvezda)
1.99 / 1.33
Defence rating (FC Lugano / FK Crvena Zvezda)
0.65 / 0.58

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 4.4% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 1 9.2% 11.4% 5.3% 1.8% 0.6% 2 9.8% 9.9% 5.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3 6.2% 6.3% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 4.6% 4.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: FC Lugano goals. Columns: FK Crvena Zvezda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Lugano45%2.21
Draw26%3.88
FK Crvena Zvezda29%3.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.28
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Double chance1X (FC Lugano or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or FK Crvena Zvezda)55%1.83
Handicap -1FC Lugano win by 2+34%2.91
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda recent form

FC Lugano 5W 1D 0L
FK Crvena Zvezda 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Lugano at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Lugano at home only, FK Crvena Zvezda away only.

Expected lineups

FC Lugano lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 16 David von Ballmoos
  2. 3 Hannes Delcroix
  3. 17 Lars Lukas Mai
  4. 6 Antonios Papadopoulos
  5. 21 Yanis Cimignani
  6. 27 Daniel Dos Santos
  7. 8 Anto Grgić
  8. 25 Uran Bislimi
  9. 2 Bekhruz Karimov
  10. 9 Albian Ajeti
  11. 11 Renato Steffen

Bench: Damian Kelvin, Ezgjan Alioski, Ahmed Kendouci, Beckham Castro, Elias Pihlström, Martim Marques, Felix Gebhardt, Dereck Moncada, Kevin Behrens, Diego Mina

FK Crvena Zvezda lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Matheus
  2. 3 Yuta Nakayama
  3. 60 Matej Gaštarov
  4. 45 Stefan Gudelj
  5. 23 Mihailo Ristić
  6. 21 Timi Max Elšnik
  7. 33 Rade Krunić
  8. 20 Tomás Händel
  9. 37 Vladimir Lučić
  10. 22 Vasilije Kostov
  11. 9 Ahmadou Bamba Dieng

Bench: Mahmudu Bajo, Marko Arnautović, Kristiyan Balov, Miloš Veljković, Ye-geon Kim, Matej Strika, Franklin Tebo, Savo Radanović, Dimitrije Šarić, Muhammed-Cham Saračević, Ivan Guteša

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

Before and after this match