Updated

Switzerland Super League · Matchday 10

FC Zurich vs FC Thun

· Letzigrund, Zurich· Referee Hajrim Qovanaj

Full time4 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Thun to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC ZurichDrawFC Thun

FC Zurich vs FC Thun: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC ZurichDrawFC Thun
Model43%22%35%
Market36%24%40%
Published38%24%39%
Edge+2%-1%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Zurich vs FC Thun odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Thun, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.27Now 2.30 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Zurich2.632.60-0.03
Draw3.903.85-0.05
FC Thun2.272.30+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Zurich and FC Thun expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.14FC Zurich
1.92FC Thun
Total expected goals
4.06
Attack rating (FC Zurich / FC Thun)
0.91 / 1.08
Defence rating (FC Zurich / FC Thun)
1.12 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Zurich vs FC Thun score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.4% 2.6% 3.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1 3.0% 7.8% 6.8% 4.4% 3.3% 2 3.9% 7.6% 7.3% 4.7% 3.5% 3 2.8% 5.4% 5.2% 3.3% 2.5% 4+ 2.5% 4.7% 4.5% 2.9% 2.2%

Rows: FC Zurich goals. Columns: FC Thun goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Zurich vs FC Thun goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 77%
Over 3.5 58%
Both teams to score
76%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Zurich vs FC Thun

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Zurich38%2.67
Draw24%4.25
FC Thun39%2.57
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577%1.30
Under 2.523%4.36
Both teams to scoreYes76%1.32
No24%4.17
Double chance1X (FC Zurich or draw)61%1.64
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or FC Thun)62%1.60
Handicap -1FC Thun win by 2+19%5.28
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Zurich and FC Thun recent form

FC Zurich 2W 2D 2L
FC Thun 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Zurich at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

FC Thun away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
2.60
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Zurich at home only, FC Thun away only.

Expected lineups

FC Zurich lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 43 N. Volken
  2. 21 L. Schodler
  3. 2 L. Kamberi
  4. 23 V. Berisha
  5. 11 U. Emmanuel
  6. 7 B. Krasniqi
  7. 38 M. Reichmuth
  8. 17 K. Spadanuda
  9. 19 P. Keny

Bench: J. Segura, C. Fiorini, L. Comenencia, H. Lindner, N. Di Giusto, M. Bangoura, A. Hack, J. Stiel, D. Ramić

FC Thun lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 N. Steffen
  2. 18 T. Strannegård
  3. 19 J. Bamert
  4. 5 N. Bürgy
  5. 47 F. Fehr
  6. 52 Adam Ilic
  7. 13 N. Zoukit
  8. 16 J. Roth
  9. 30 N. Maier
  10. 9 F. Dursun
  11. 80 S. Lengen

Bench: O. Mambwa, A. Balaruban, R. Braschi, D. Derbaci, T. Spycher, N. Christoffersson, L. Dähler, L. Passavant, N. Reichmuth

FC Zurich vs FC Thun head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Zurich 4 · draws 3 · FC Thun 3.

FC ZurichDrawsFC Thun
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21FC Zurich2-1FC ThunSwitzerland Super League
2025-12-20FC Thun4-2FC ZurichSwitzerland Super League
2025-08-23FC Zurich0-4FC ThunSwitzerland Super League
2024-07-06FC Thun0-0FC ZurichFriendlies Clubs
2020-08-03FC Zurich3-3FC ThunSuper League
2020-07-01FC Thun3-2FC ZurichSuper League
2019-11-02FC Thun0-1FC ZurichSuper League
2019-09-22FC Zurich2-0FC ThunSuper League
2019-05-15FC Zurich3-0FC ThunSuper League
2019-03-10FC Thun2-2FC ZurichSuper League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match