Updated

Switzerland Super League · Matchday 13

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys

· Stade de Suisse Wankdorf Bern, Bern

TipsterGrid prediction BSC Young Boys to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC LuzernDrawBSC Young Boys
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.83.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — BSC Young Boys is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
FC Luzern3.77 Draw4.57 BSC Young Boys1.82

Price as of

Expected return at 1.82: -3.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys preview

In the upcoming match between FC Luzern and BSC Young Boys, the model indicates a 26% chance for FC Luzern to win, while BSC Young Boys holds a 53% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an expected goals figure of 1.83 for FC Luzern compared to 2.62 for BSC Young Boys.

While the model shows a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 82% and both teams to score at 78%, recent form could impact the outcome. FC Luzern's last five matches include 2 losses, while BSC Young Boys has won 4 of their last 5. The confidence grade for this fixture is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC LuzernDrawBSC Young Boys
Model26%20%54%
Market26%21%53%
Published26%21%53%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.83.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys odds movement

Median bookmaker price on BSC Young Boys, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.77Now 1.76 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Luzern3.623.60-0.02
Draw4.334.33+0.00
BSC Young Boys1.771.76-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Luzern and BSC Young Boys expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.83FC Luzern
2.62BSC Young Boys
Total expected goals
4.44
Attack rating (FC Luzern / BSC Young Boys)
0.98 / 1.66
Defence rating (FC Luzern / BSC Young Boys)
1.00 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 2.5% 4.0% 3.5% 4.3% 1 1.6% 6.2% 7.4% 6.4% 7.9% 2 2.0% 5.1% 6.7% 5.9% 7.2% 3 1.2% 3.1% 4.1% 3.6% 4.4% 4+ 0.8% 2.2% 2.8% 2.5% 3.0%

Rows: FC Luzern goals. Columns: BSC Young Boys goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 82%
Over 3.5 65%
Both teams to score
78%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Luzern26%3.87
Draw21%4.77
BSC Young Boys53%1.88
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582%1.22
Under 2.518%5.55
Both teams to scoreYes78%1.28
No22%4.62
Double chance1X (FC Luzern or draw)47%2.14
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or BSC Young Boys)74%1.35
Handicap -1BSC Young Boys win by 2+36%2.80
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

FC Luzern and BSC Young Boys recent form

FC Luzern 2W 1D 3L
BSC Young Boys 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Luzern at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

BSC Young Boys away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-0
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
3.20
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Luzern at home only, BSC Young Boys away only.

FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Luzern 1 · draws 2 · BSC Young Boys 7.

FC LuzernDrawsBSC Young Boys
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-05BSC Young Boys3-3FC LuzernSwitzerland Super League
2026-03-04FC Luzern1-2BSC Young BoysSwitzerland Super League
2025-12-14BSC Young Boys2-0FC LuzernSwitzerland Super League
2025-09-14FC Luzern1-2BSC Young BoysSwitzerland Super League
2025-05-15BSC Young Boys2-1FC LuzernSuper League
2025-04-13FC Luzern5-0BSC Young BoysSuper League
2024-11-23FC Luzern1-1BSC Young BoysSuper League
2024-10-19BSC Young Boys2-1FC LuzernSuper League
2024-04-14BSC Young Boys4-2FC LuzernSuper League
2023-11-11BSC Young Boys6-1FC LuzernSuper League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot BSC Young Boys to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on BSC Young Boys
Our pick: BSC Young Boys to win 18+ Bet Now