Updated

Switzerland Super League · Matchday 13

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano

· Kybunpark, St. Gallen

TipsterGrid prediction FC Lugano to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC ST. GallenDrawFC Lugano
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.23.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
FC ST. Gallen2.32 Draw3.91 FC Lugano2.79

Price as of

Expected return at 2.79: +15.6% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano preview

In the upcoming fixture between FC St. Gallen and FC Lugano, the probabilities show FC St. Gallen at 35%, a draw at 23%, and FC Lugano leading at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. The expected goals indicate FC St. Gallen at 1.23 and FC Lugano at 2.46, suggesting a potential advantage for Lugano.

However, FC St. Gallen has a strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while FC Lugano boasts an impressive 6 consecutive wins. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 71%, and both teams to score is at 65%. These factors could influence the outcome, making it a competitive match.

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC ST. GallenDrawFC Lugano
Model17%20%64%
Market41%25%34%
Published35%23%41%
Edge-6%-1%+7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +7.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.79, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +15.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Lugano, 7 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.75Now 2.74 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC ST. Gallen2.262.25-0.01
Draw3.823.80-0.02
FC Lugano2.752.74-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC ST. Gallen and FC Lugano expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23FC ST. Gallen
2.46FC Lugano
Total expected goals
3.69
Attack rating (FC ST. Gallen / FC Lugano)
0.94 / 1.70
Defence rating (FC ST. Gallen / FC Lugano)
0.91 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 5.4% 7.6% 6.2% 6.8% 1 2.3% 8.3% 9.3% 7.6% 8.4% 2 1.9% 4.7% 5.7% 4.7% 5.2% 3 0.8% 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% 2.1% 4+ 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%

Rows: FC ST. Gallen goals. Columns: FC Lugano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC ST. Gallen35%2.84
Draw23%4.29
FC Lugano41%2.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.40
Under 2.529%3.48
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.53
No35%2.89
Double chance1X (FC ST. Gallen or draw)59%1.71
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or FC Lugano)65%1.54
Handicap -1FC Lugano win by 2+43%2.34
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

FC ST. Gallen and FC Lugano recent form

FC ST. Gallen 4W 0D 2L
FC Lugano 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC ST. Gallen at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.

FC Lugano away

Record (W-D-L)
5-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.20
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 10 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC ST. Gallen at home only, FC Lugano away only.

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC ST. Gallen 5 · draws 3 · FC Lugano 2.

FC ST. GallenDrawsFC Lugano
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-16FC Lugano4-1FC ST. GallenSwitzerland Super League
2026-05-10FC Lugano1-2FC ST. GallenSwitzerland Super League
2026-03-17FC ST. Gallen1-1FC LuganoSwitzerland Super League
2025-11-26FC Lugano1-3FC ST. GallenSwitzerland Super League
2025-09-13FC ST. Gallen1-0FC LuganoSwitzerland Super League
2025-04-13FC Lugano1-1FC ST. GallenSuper League
2025-02-05FC ST. Gallen2-1FC LuganoSuper League
2024-09-01FC Lugano1-1FC ST. GallenSuper League
2024-05-04FC Lugano0-1FC ST. GallenSuper League
2024-03-09FC ST. Gallen2-3FC LuganoSuper League

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot FC Lugano to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on FC Lugano
Our pick: FC Lugano to win 18+ Bet Now