Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

Twente vs FC Thun

· De Grolsch Veste, Enschede· Referee G. Nuza

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Twente to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TwenteDrawFC Thun

Twente vs FC Thun: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTwenteDrawFC Thun
Model81%11%8%
Market79%13%9%
Published79%12%8%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.79 vs 1.33.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Twente vs FC Thun odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Twente, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.20Now 1.20 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Twente1.201.20+0.00
Draw6.757.50+0.75
FC Thun10.8811.12+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Twente and FC Thun expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.79Twente
1.33FC Thun
Total expected goals
5.11
Attack rating (Twente / FC Thun)
1.40 / 1.23
Defence rating (Twente / FC Thun)
0.91 / 1.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Twente vs FC Thun score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1 2.0% 3.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 2 4.3% 5.7% 3.8% 1.7% 0.7% 3 5.4% 7.2% 4.8% 2.1% 0.9% 4+ 13.8% 18.4% 12.2% 5.4% 2.4%

Rows: Twente goals. Columns: FC Thun goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Twente vs FC Thun goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 97%
Over 2.5 88%
Over 3.5 75%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Twente vs FC Thun

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Twente79%1.26
Draw12%8.19
FC Thun8%11.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.588%1.13
Under 2.512%8.67
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.39
No28%3.59
Double chance1X (Twente or draw)92%1.09
12 (either side)88%1.14
X2 (draw or FC Thun)21%4.84
Handicap -1Twente win by 2+66%1.53
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Twente and FC Thun recent form

Twente 4W 2D 0L
FC Thun 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Twente at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Twente at home only, FC Thun away only.

Expected lineups

Twente lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 Joël Drommel
  2. 29 Aske Adelgaard
  3. 3 Robin Pröpper
  4. 4 Ruud Nijstad
  5. 28 Bart van Rooij
  6. 8 Daouda Weidmann
  7. 6 Ramiz Zerrouki
  8. 27 Sondre Ørjasæter
  9. 10 Younes Taha
  10. 11 Daan Rots
  11. 9 Wout Weghorst

Bench: Michał Rosiak, Marko Pjaca, Kristian Hlynsson, Filip Thorvaldsen, Jordy Bawuah, Thomas Van den Belt, Remko Pasveer, Krzysztof Kurowski, Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink, Benjamin Nagel, Yannick Gerritsen, Jip Meilink

FC Thun lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Niklas Steffen
  2. 2 Olivier Mambwa
  3. 19 Jan Bamert
  4. 5 Nicolas Bürgy
  5. 47 Fabio Fehr
  6. 15 Patrik Kristal
  7. 14 Mattias Käit
  8. 16 Justin Roth
  9. 70 Nils Reichmuth
  10. 9 Furkan Dursun
  11. 96 Brighton Labeau

Bench: Nassim Zoukit, Tom Strannegård, Riccardo Braschi, Dorian Derbaci, Dario Walti, Tim Spycher, Noah Christoffersson, Nico Maier, Lucien Dähler, Louis Passavant, Simon Lengen

Other League Stage - 1 fixtures

Before and after this match