Napoli vs Lazio preview
In the Serie A fixture between Napoli and Lazio, Napoli holds a 47% probability of winning compared to Lazio's 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% likelihood. Napoli's expected goals stand at 2.11, while Lazio's are at 1.79, suggesting a competitive match.
However, recent form could complicate this prediction. Napoli has recorded a W-D-W-L-L-W streak, while Lazio boasts an impressive W-W-W-W-W-W run. The head-to-head record also favors Lazio, with 3 wins in the last 6 encounters. Both teams have a 75% chance of scoring, indicating that while Napoli may be favored, Lazio's form and historical performance could lead to a different outcome.
Why this pick: Napoli vs Lazio
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Napoli 10, Lazio 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Napoli vs Lazio: model vs market
| Source | Napoli | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 26% |
| Published | 47% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Napoli vs Lazio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 2.36 | 2.20 | -0.16 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.60 | -0.12 |
| Lazio | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Napoli and Lazio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.76
- Attack rating (Napoli / Lazio)
- 1.41 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Napoli / Lazio)
- 1.15 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Napoli vs Lazio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Napoli vs Lazio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Napoli vs Lazio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Lazio | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Napoli or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Lazio) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win by 2+ | 22% | 4.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Napoli and Lazio recent form
Napoli
2W 1D 3L
Lazio
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Napoli at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Lazio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Napoli at home only, Lazio away only.
Napoli vs Lazio head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Napoli 1 · draws 2 · Lazio 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Napoli | 0-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2026-01-04 | Lazio | 0-2 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2025-02-15 | Lazio | 2-2 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-12-08 | Napoli | 0-1 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-01-28 | Lazio | 0-0 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2023-09-02 | Napoli | 1-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Cagliari vs Frosinone 2026-11-07
- Torino vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Roma vs Sassuolo 2026-11-07
- Genoa vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Monza vs Atalanta 2026-11-08
- Inter vs Como 2026-11-08
- Fiorentina v Juventus — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Napoli, previous: FC Porto v Napoli analysis
- Lazio, previous: Lazio – Cagliari, 2026-11-01