FC Porto vs Estoril: model vs market
| Source | FC Porto | Draw | Estoril |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Market | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| Published | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Porto vs Estoril odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Porto, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.20 | 1.17 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 7.60 | 7.30 | -0.30 |
| Estoril | 15.00 | 15.12 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Porto and Estoril expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (FC Porto / Estoril)
- 1.20 / 0.62
- Defence rating (FC Porto / Estoril)
- 0.79 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Porto vs Estoril score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Porto goals. Columns: Estoril goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Porto vs Estoril goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Porto vs Estoril
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 78% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.67 | |
| Estoril | 7% | 14.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.48 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Porto or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Estoril) | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win by 2+ | 45% | 2.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Porto and Estoril recent form
FC Porto
4W 0D 2L
Estoril
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Porto at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 9 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Estoril away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Porto at home only, Estoril away only.
Expected lineups
FC Porto lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 99 Diogo Costa
- 12 Z. Sanusi
- 4 J. Kiwior
- 5 J. Bednarek
- 20 Alberto Baio
- 13 P. Rosario
- 8 Victor Mow Froholdt
- 17 Borja Sainz
- 10 Gabri Veiga
- 11 Pepê Aquino
- 9 Samu
Bench: Cláudio Ramos, Hwang In-Beom, N. Pérez, André Silva, D. Prpić, A. Varela, Andorinha, S. Giménez, Souza, Gabriel Mec, S. Fofana, Francisco Moura
Estoril lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 16 M. Turk
- 42 J. Arnolin
- 6 Xavi Sintes
- 4 Ferro
- 25 S. Andreou
- 5 A. Tsoungui
- 19 Tiago Parreira Parente
- 22 Pedro Carvalho
- 17 Peixinho
- 99 R. Guitane
- 7 André Lacximicant
Bench: Ricard Sánchez, Fernando Medrano, Xeka, A. Camblan, J. Holsgrove, N. Omerović, João Carvalho, Isma Sierra, S. Amissah, M. Robin
FC Porto vs Estoril head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Porto 6 · draws 1 · Estoril 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Estoril | 1-3 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-11-30 | FC Porto | 1-0 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-03-30 | Estoril | 1-2 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-11-03 | FC Porto | 4-0 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-03-30 | Estoril | 1-0 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-01-09 | Estoril | 0-4 | FC Porto | Taça de Portugal |
| 2023-12-06 | Estoril | 3-1 | FC Porto | Taça da Liga |
| 2023-11-03 | FC Porto | 0-1 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-03-10 | FC Porto | 3-2 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-09-17 | Estoril | 1-1 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Casa Pia v Sporting CP — match page 2026-10-30
- Moreirense vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Arouca vs Nacional — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Maritimo v Santa Clara — match page 2026-11-01
- Academico Viseu v Rio Ave — match page 2026-11-01
- SC Braga vs Famalicao 2026-11-01
- Benfica vs Alverca — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- FC Porto, previous: GIL Vicente vs FC Porto: odds and pick
- FC Porto, next: FC Porto v Napoli analysis
- Estoril, previous: Estoril v Moreirense analysis
- Estoril, next: Estoril vs Maritimo prediction