Vitória SC vs FC Porto preview
In the fixture between Vitória SC and FC Porto, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Porto at 53%, significantly higher than Vitória SC's 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with an expected goals figure of 1.41 for FC Porto compared to 0.99 for Vitória SC.
However, recent form indicates that Vitória SC has secured 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while FC Porto has also performed well with 4 wins in their last 6 games. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 49%, suggesting that while FC Porto is favored, there is a possibility for a tighter contest than the numbers suggest.
Vitória SC vs FC Porto: model vs market
| Source | Vitória SC | Draw | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 31% | 45% |
| Market | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Published | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Vitória SC vs FC Porto odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Porto, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC | 5.03 | 4.86 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 4.00 | +0.22 |
| FC Porto | 1.76 | 1.65 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vitória SC and FC Porto expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Vitória SC / FC Porto)
- 0.85 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Vitória SC / FC Porto)
- 0.78 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vitória SC vs FC Porto score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vitória SC goals. Columns: FC Porto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vitória SC vs FC Porto goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vitória SC vs FC Porto
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitória SC | 21% | 4.86 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| FC Porto | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.24 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vitória SC or draw) | 46% | 2.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Porto) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win by 2+ | 21% | 4.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Vitória SC and FC Porto recent form
Vitória SC
2W 2D 2L
FC Porto
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vitória SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
FC Porto away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 9 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Vitória SC at home only, FC Porto away only.
Vitória SC vs FC Porto head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Vitória SC 0 · draws 0 · FC Porto 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Vitória SC | 0-1 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-11 | FC Porto | 3-0 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Famalicao vs Arouca — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Nacional vs Academico Viseu 2026-11-07
- Alverca vs Casa Pia 2026-11-07
- Sporting CP vs Moreirense 2026-11-07
- Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Estoril v Maritimo — match page 2026-11-08
- Rio Ave v SC Braga — match page 2026-11-08
- Estrela v Benfica — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Vitória SC, previous: GIL Vicente – Vitória SC, 2026-11-02
- FC Porto, previous: FC Porto v Napoli analysis