RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg preview
RasenBallsport Leipzig has a 62% probability of winning against Augsburg, with an expected goals tally of 2.96 for Leipzig compared to 1.90 for Augsburg. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 7% probability. Leipzig's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Augsburg has struggled with only 1 win in their last 6.
However, the prediction could be challenged by Augsburg's recent performance, which includes a win against a stronger opponent. Additionally, both teams to score has an 80% probability, indicating that Augsburg may find the net despite their overall form. With a confidence grade of A, Leipzig is favored, but the potential for a surprise remains.
Why this pick: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (RasenBallsport Leipzig 10, Augsburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg: model vs market
| Source | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | Augsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 20% | 26% |
| Market | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| Published | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1.46 | 1.46 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.05 | +0.05 |
| Augsburg | 5.58 | 5.50 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Augsburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.86
- Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Augsburg)
- 1.32 / 1.27
- Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Augsburg)
- 1.04 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: Augsburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.30 | |
| Augsburg | 19% | 5.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 6.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 5.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Augsburg) | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+ | 36% | 2.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Augsburg recent form
RasenBallsport Leipzig
4W 0D 2L
Augsburg
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RasenBallsport Leipzig at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 4.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Augsburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: RasenBallsport Leipzig at home only, Augsburg away only.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Augsburg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: RasenBallsport Leipzig 6 · draws 4 · Augsburg 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2-1 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-25 | Augsburg | 0-6 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2025-02-14 | Augsburg | 0-0 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2024-09-28 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 4-0 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-02-10 | Augsburg | 2-2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2023-09-16 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3-0 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-04-15 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3-2 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2022-10-22 | Augsburg | 3-3 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2022-05-08 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 4-0 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2021-12-15 | Augsburg | 1-1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
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- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 2026-11-07
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-11-08
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats 2026-11-08
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Before and after this match
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, previous: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction
- Augsburg, previous: Augsburg – Freiburg, 2026-10-31