St. Truiden vs Brann preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between St. Truiden and Brann, St. Truiden has a 54% probability of winning compared to Brann's 23%. The most likely scoreline, according to our model, is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. St. Truiden's expected goals stand at 2.11, while Brann's is lower at 1.60.
Despite St. Truiden's stronger position, recent form shows inconsistency, with two losses in their last six matches. Brann, on the other hand, has also struggled, losing three of their last six. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making the match less predictable than the probabilities suggest. Both teams have a high likelihood of scoring, with our model indicating a 71% chance for both teams to find the net.
St. Truiden vs Brann: model vs market
| Source | St. Truiden | Draw | Brann |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.75.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
St. Truiden vs Brann odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St. Truiden, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | 1.70 | 1.70 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.01 | +0.01 |
| Brann | 4.33 | 4.37 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
St. Truiden and Brann expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.86
- Attack rating (St. Truiden / Brann)
- 1.22 / 1.28
- Defence rating (St. Truiden / Brann)
- 1.15 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
St. Truiden vs Brann score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: St. Truiden goals. Columns: Brann goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
St. Truiden vs Brann goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for St. Truiden vs Brann
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Truiden | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Brann | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (St. Truiden or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Brann) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Truiden win by 2+ | 27% | 3.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
St. Truiden and Brann recent form
St. Truiden
3W 0D 3L
Brann
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
St. Truiden at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Brann away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: St. Truiden at home only, Brann away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
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- FC Copenhagen vs FC Iberia 1999 2026-11-05
- Twente vs Pafos 2026-11-05
- Getafe v Brighton — match page 2026-11-05
- FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris 2026-11-05
- Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2026-11-05
- Riga vs FK Jablonec 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- St. Truiden, previous: FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden prediction
- Brann, previous: Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann prediction