Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia

· Right to Dream Park, Farum· Referee R. Jones

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Nordsjaelland to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC NordsjaellandDrawCSKA Sofia

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC NordsjaellandDrawCSKA Sofia
Model48%25%28%
Market66%20%14%
Published61%21%18%
Edge-5%+1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.38.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Nordsjaelland, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.53Now 1.42 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Nordsjaelland1.531.42-0.11
Draw4.434.75+0.32
CSKA Sofia5.716.62+0.92

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Nordsjaelland and CSKA Sofia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.85FC Nordsjaelland
1.38CSKA Sofia
Total expected goals
3.23
Attack rating (FC Nordsjaelland / CSKA Sofia)
1.22 / 1.27
Defence rating (FC Nordsjaelland / CSKA Sofia)
0.92 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 4.5% 3.8% 1.7% 0.8% 1 6.3% 11.1% 7.0% 3.2% 1.5% 2 6.8% 9.3% 6.4% 3.0% 1.4% 3 4.2% 5.7% 4.0% 1.8% 0.9% 4+ 2.9% 4.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6%

Rows: FC Nordsjaelland goals. Columns: CSKA Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Nordsjaelland61%1.63
Draw21%4.77
CSKA Sofia18%5.70
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.60
Under 2.537%2.68
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.56
No36%2.78
Double chance1X (FC Nordsjaelland or draw)82%1.21
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or CSKA Sofia)39%2.60
Handicap -1FC Nordsjaelland win by 2+27%3.72
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Nordsjaelland and CSKA Sofia recent form

FC Nordsjaelland 2W 3D 1L
CSKA Sofia 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Nordsjaelland at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland at home only, CSKA Sofia away only.

Expected lineups

FC Nordsjaelland lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 13 Andreas Hansen
  2. 4 Noah Markmann
  3. 25 Victor Nelsson
  4. 15 Stephen Acquah
  5. 5 Juho Lähteenmäki
  6. 8 Nicklas Røjkjær
  7. 18 Justin Janssen
  8. 23 Runar Robinsonn Norheim
  9. 14 Ibrahim Adel
  10. 11 Alexander Lind
  11. 29 Villum Berthelsen

Bench: Peter Ankersen, Tobias Salquist, Mark Brink, Ola Solbakken, Prince Amoako Junior, Jakob Busk, Malte Heyde, Carljohan Eriksson, Markus Walker, Villads Rutkjær, Lamine Sadio, Hjalte Boe Rasmussen

CSKA Sofia lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 21 Fedor Lapoukhov
  2. 32 Facundo Rodríguez
  3. 6 Bruno Jordão
  4. 4 Dinis Almeida
  5. 17 Ángelo Martino
  6. 8 Stefano Sensi
  7. 30 Petko Panayotov
  8. 7 Max Ebong
  9. 2 Pastor
  10. 28 Ioannis Pittas
  11. 9 Leandro Godoy

Bench: Teodor Ivanov, Andrey Yordanov, Dimitar Evtimov, Daniel Nikolov, Vasil Kaymakanov, Cătălin Itu, Aleks Tunchev, Isaac Solet, James Eto'o

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