Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3

Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia

· Olympic Stadium of Athens, Athens· Referee M. Al-Hakim

TipsterGrid prediction Panathinaikos to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PanathinaikosDrawCSKA Sofia
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.74.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Panathinaikos is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Panathinaikos1.52 Draw4.70 CSKA Sofia7.00

Price as of

Expected return at 1.52: -1.5% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia preview

In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between Panathinaikos and CSKA Sofia, the probabilities indicate a strong likelihood for Panathinaikos at 62%, with a predicted scoreline of 2-0 at 12%. The expected goals reflect this, with Panathinaikos at 2.04 and CSKA Sofia at 0.82, suggesting a significant offensive advantage for the home side.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating potential uncertainty in the prediction. CSKA Sofia's recent form includes two draws and a win, which could challenge Panathinaikos's dominance. Both teams to score stands at 50%, hinting at a possibility for CSKA Sofia to find the net despite their lower expected goals.

Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePanathinaikosDrawCSKA Sofia
Model66%22%12%
Market64%21%15%
Published65%21%14%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.74.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Panathinaikos, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.44Now 1.46 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Panathinaikos1.441.46+0.02
Draw4.504.42-0.08
CSKA Sofia6.506.44-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Panathinaikos and CSKA Sofia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.01Panathinaikos
0.74CSKA Sofia
Total expected goals
2.75
Attack rating (Panathinaikos / CSKA Sofia)
1.48 / 1.16
Defence rating (Panathinaikos / CSKA Sofia)
0.54 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 3.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1 11.9% 10.4% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 2 12.9% 9.6% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3 8.7% 6.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 6.9% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Panathinaikos goals. Columns: CSKA Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Panathinaikos65%1.54
Draw21%4.68
CSKA Sofia14%7.23
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.93
Under 2.548%2.08
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.17
No54%1.86
Double chance1X (Panathinaikos or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or CSKA Sofia)35%2.84
Handicap -1Panathinaikos win by 2+42%2.37
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Panathinaikos and CSKA Sofia recent form

Panathinaikos 6W 0D 0L
CSKA Sofia 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Panathinaikos at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CSKA Sofia away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Panathinaikos at home only, CSKA Sofia away only.

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Panathinaikos to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Panathinaikos
Our pick: Panathinaikos to win 18+ Bet Now