Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3

Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

· Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova· Referee D. Robertson

TipsterGrid prediction Universitatea Craiova to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Universitatea CraiovaDrawEgnatia Rrogozhinë
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.73.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Universitatea Craiova is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Universitatea Craiova1.50 Draw4.80 Egnatia Rrogozhinë7.00

Price as of

Expected return at 1.50: -3.6% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë preview

In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture, Universitatea Craiova has a 62% probability of winning against Egnatia Rrogozhinë, who sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. This strong probability reflects Universitatea Craiova's recent form, which includes four wins and a draw in their last six matches.

However, the confidence grade is only C, indicating potential uncertainty in the prediction. Egnatia Rrogozhinë has shown resilience, with three wins in their last five matches. While Universitatea Craiova's expected goals stand at 1.86 compared to Egnatia Rrogozhinë's 0.73, the possibility of an upset should not be dismissed entirely.

Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUniversitatea CraiovaDrawEgnatia Rrogozhinë
Model63%24%13%
Market65%21%14%
Published64%22%14%
Edge0%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.73.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Universitatea Craiova, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.44Now 1.44 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Universitatea Craiova1.441.44+0.00
Draw4.454.43-0.02
Egnatia Rrogozhinë6.706.60-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Universitatea Craiova and Egnatia Rrogozhinë expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86Universitatea Craiova
0.73Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Total expected goals
2.59
Attack rating (Universitatea Craiova / Egnatia Rrogozhinë)
1.50 / 1.15
Defence rating (Universitatea Craiova / Egnatia Rrogozhinë)
0.53 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.5% 4.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1 12.9% 11.2% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 2 12.9% 9.5% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3 8.0% 5.9% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 5.7% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Universitatea Craiova goals. Columns: Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Universitatea Craiova64%1.56
Draw22%4.59
Egnatia Rrogozhinë14%7.19
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.09
Under 2.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.23
No55%1.82
Double chance1X (Universitatea Craiova or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë)36%2.80
Handicap -1Universitatea Craiova win by 2+38%2.61
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Universitatea Craiova and Egnatia Rrogozhinë recent form

Universitatea Craiova 5W 1D 0L
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Universitatea Craiova at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Universitatea Craiova at home only, Egnatia Rrogozhinë away only.

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Universitatea Craiova to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Universitatea Craiova
Our pick: Universitatea Craiova to win 18+ Bet Now