Twente vs Pafos preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between Twente and Pafos, the probabilities indicate a strong likelihood for Twente at 72%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-0 at 12%. Twente's expected goals sit at 2.48, significantly higher than Pafos's 0.74, suggesting a clear offensive advantage for the home side.
However, Pafos has managed to secure four draws in their last five matches, which could disrupt Twente's momentum. While our model predicts a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score, Pafos's recent form indicates they may be difficult to break down despite their lower expected goals.
Twente vs Pafos: model vs market
| Source | Twente | Draw | Pafos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| Market | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Published | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.34, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Twente vs Pafos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Twente, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 1.30 | 1.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.49 | -0.01 |
| Pafos | 8.80 | 8.20 | -0.60 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Twente and Pafos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Twente / Pafos)
- 1.84 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Twente / Pafos)
- 0.69 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Twente vs Pafos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Twente goals. Columns: Pafos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Twente vs Pafos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Twente vs Pafos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Twente | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.89 | |
| Pafos | 11% | 9.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Twente or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Pafos) | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Twente win by 2+ | 53% | 1.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Twente and Pafos recent form
Twente
4W 1D 1L
Pafos
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Twente at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
Pafos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Twente at home only, Pafos away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- Monaco vs FC Nordsjaelland — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- FC Copenhagen vs FC Iberia 1999 2026-11-05
- Getafe v Brighton — match page 2026-11-05
- FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris 2026-11-05
- Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2026-11-05
- St. Truiden vs Brann — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Riga vs FK Jablonec 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- Twente, previous: Excelsior v Twente analysis
- Twente, next: Twente vs Ajax prediction
- Pafos, previous: Pafos vs Riga: odds and pick