Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos

· Almaty Central Stadium, Almaty· Referee A. Lindhout

Full time1 – 5

TipsterGrid prediction was Panathinaikos to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Kairat AlmatyDrawPanathinaikos

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKairat AlmatyDrawPanathinaikos
Model33%30%37%
Market18%24%58%
Published22%25%53%
Edge+4%+1%-5%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Panathinaikos, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.85Now 1.62 -0.23
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kairat Almaty4.015.09+1.08
Draw3.753.95+0.20
Panathinaikos1.851.62-0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Kairat Almaty
1.29Panathinaikos
Total expected goals
2.48
Attack rating (Kairat Almaty / Panathinaikos)
1.14 / 1.41
Defence rating (Kairat Almaty / Panathinaikos)
0.77 / 0.63

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 9.5% 6.9% 3.0% 1.3% 1 8.7% 14.1% 8.3% 3.6% 1.5% 2 5.9% 7.7% 4.9% 2.1% 0.9% 3 2.4% 3.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Kairat Almaty goals. Columns: Panathinaikos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kairat Almaty22%4.54
Draw25%3.97
Panathinaikos53%1.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.21
Under 2.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.07
Double chance1X (Kairat Almaty or draw)47%2.12
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Panathinaikos)78%1.28
Handicap -1Panathinaikos win by 2+17%5.78
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos recent form

Kairat Almaty 3W 1D 2L
Panathinaikos 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Panathinaikos away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Kairat Almaty at home only, Panathinaikos away only.

Expected lineups

Kairat Almaty lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Temirlan Anarbekov
  2. 3 Luís Mata
  3. 8 Olzhas Baibek
  4. 14 Aleksandr Martynovich
  5. 20 Erkin Tapalov
  6. 13 Jaakko Oksanen
  7. 22 Gustavo Mendonca
  8. 17 Azamat Tuyakbayev
  9. 28 Marc Gual
  10. 24 Aleksandr Mrynskiy
  11. 9 Edmilson

Bench: Damir Kasabulat, Lev Kurgin, Adilet Sadybekov, Mansur Birkurmanov, Oiva Jukkola, Aleksandr Shirobokov, Ismail Bekbolat, Sherkhan Kalmurza

Panathinaikos lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Iñaki Peña
  2. 77 Georgios Kyriakopoulos
  3. 6 Stefan de Vrij
  4. 14 Erik Palmer Brown
  5. 19 Triantafyllos Tsapras
  6. 22 Etienne Camara
  7. 26 Imrân Louza
  8. 10 Santino Andino
  9. 7 Andreas Tetteh
  10. 20 Vicente Taborda
  11. 9 Cyriel Dessers

Bench: Davide Calabria, Georgios Katris, Pedro Chirivella, Sotiris Kontouris, Facundo Pellistri, Kings Kangwa, Iason Nempis, Rick Van Drongelen, Konstantinos Kotsaris, Christos Gitonas, Elmin Rastoder, Levi García

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match