Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann

· National Football Academy, Kaunas· Referee P. Ilic

Full time1 – 4

TipsterGrid prediction was Brann to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Kauno ŽalgirisDrawBrann

Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKauno ŽalgirisDrawBrann
Model52%25%22%
Market21%24%55%
Published29%24%47%
Edge+8%0%-8%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brann, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.74Now 1.70 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kauno Žalgiris4.224.50+0.28
Draw3.844.00+0.16
Brann1.741.70-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kauno Žalgiris and Brann expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.80Kauno Žalgiris
1.12Brann
Total expected goals
2.92
Attack rating (Kauno Žalgiris / Brann)
1.06 / 1.05
Defence rating (Kauno Žalgiris / Brann)
0.90 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 4.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 1 8.6% 12.0% 6.1% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.7% 9.8% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7% 3 5.2% 5.9% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 3.5% 4.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Kauno Žalgiris goals. Columns: Brann goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kauno Žalgiris29%3.47
Draw24%4.17
Brann47%2.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.74
No43%2.35
Double chance1X (Kauno Žalgiris or draw)53%1.89
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Brann)71%1.40
Handicap -1Brann win by 2+9%11.07
Push (exactly one goal)13%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kauno Žalgiris and Brann recent form

Kauno Žalgiris 4W 0D 2L
Brann 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Brann away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kauno Žalgiris at home only, Brann away only.

Expected lineups

Kauno Žalgiris lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 55 Tomas Švedkauskas
  2. 37 Nosa Iyobosa Edokpolor
  3. 3 Anton Tolordava
  4. 77 Rokas Lekiatas
  5. 45 Joris Moutachy
  6. 20 Anthony Kalik
  7. 15 Léo Ribeiro
  8. 10 Gratas Sirgėdas
  9. 17 Ivan Fiolić
  10. 70 Fabien Ourega
  11. 19 Renan Oliveira

Bench: Amine Benchaib, Yukiyoshi Karashima, Leon Kreković, Vykintas Slivka, Deividas Mikelionis, Aldayr Hernández, Motiejus Burba, Gabriel Debeljuh, Vejas Pocius, Lirim Kastrati, Adomas Užkurnys

Brann lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 12 Simen Vidtun Nilsen
  2. 17 Joachim Soltvedt
  3. 18 Jacob Lungi Sørensen
  4. 3 Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
  5. 15 Jonas Torsvik
  6. 19 Eggert Aron Guðmundsson
  7. 25 Niklas Jensen Wassberg
  8. 10 Kristall Máni Ingason
  9. 9 Niklas Castro
  10. 29 Noah Jean Holm
  11. 22 Sævar Atli Magnússon

Bench: Mathias Dyngeland, Leo Cornic, Bård Finne, Kristian Eriksen, Vetle Dragsnes, Thore Pedersen, Håkon Melås Hellesøy, Julian Lægreid, Andreas Wilhelmsen, Brage Berg Haugen

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

Before and after this match