Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden

· MCH Arena, Herning· Referee J. Xhaja

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Midtjylland to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC MidtjyllandDrawSt. Truiden

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC MidtjyllandDrawSt. Truiden
Model71%17%12%
Market56%24%20%
Published60%22%18%
Edge+4%-2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Midtjylland below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Midtjylland, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.75Now 1.67 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Midtjylland1.751.67-0.08
Draw3.893.96+0.07
St. Truiden4.384.60+0.22

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.74FC Midtjylland
1.12St. Truiden
Total expected goals
3.86
Attack rating (FC Midtjylland / St. Truiden)
1.48 / 1.34
Defence rating (FC Midtjylland / St. Truiden)
0.70 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1 5.1% 7.1% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 2 7.9% 8.9% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 3 7.2% 8.1% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 9.6% 10.7% 6.0% 2.2% 0.8%

Rows: FC Midtjylland goals. Columns: St. Truiden goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 54%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Midtjylland60%1.67
Draw22%4.57
St. Truiden18%5.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.35
Under 2.526%3.88
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.74
Double chance1X (FC Midtjylland or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or St. Truiden)40%2.49
Handicap -1FC Midtjylland win by 2+51%1.97
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Midtjylland and St. Truiden recent form

FC Midtjylland 4W 2D 0L
St. Truiden 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Midtjylland at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Midtjylland at home only, St. Truiden away only.

Expected lineups

FC Midtjylland lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 25 Nordin Bakker
  2. 22 Mads Bech Sørensen
  3. 4 Ousmane Diao
  4. 5 Rasmus Kristensen
  5. 27 Sofus Johannesen
  6. 20 Hong Hyun-seok
  7. 19 Pedro Bravo
  8. 29 Kjell Wätjen
  9. 38 Julius Emefile
  10. 98 David Martínez Morales
  11. 9 Mileta Rajović

Bench: Gue-sung Cho, Beni Junior, Mikael Uhre, Stanley Iheanacho, Ovie Ejeheri, Abdou Aziz Ndiaye, Victor Bak Jensen, Mark Ugboh, Friday Etim

St. Truiden lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 Léo Kokubo
  2. 23 Joedrick Pupe
  3. 26 Visar Musliu
  4. 4 Kota Takai
  5. 60 Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
  6. 8 Abdoulaye Sissako
  7. 18 Nelson Ishiwatari
  8. 10 Ilias Sebaoui
  9. 14 Ryan Merlen
  10. 11 Nathanaël Mbuku
  11. 19 Frederic Soelle Soelle

Bench: Taiga Hata, Shogo Taniguchi, Arbnor Muja, Samed Baždar, Matt Lendfers, Wolke Janssens, Jeremy Kandje Mbambi, Yanis Ngoy, Kaito Matsuzawa, Ryotaro Araki, Oumar Diouf, Shion Shinkawa

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