Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

· Cepheus Park, Randers· Referee A. Culina

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Aarhus to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AarhusDrawEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAarhusDrawEgnatia Rrogozhinë
Model31%25%43%
Market65%21%14%
Published57%22%22%
Edge-8%+1%+7%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aarhus, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-18.

Opened 1.64Now 1.44 -0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aarhus1.641.44-0.20
Draw4.044.50+0.46
Egnatia Rrogozhinë5.046.55+1.51

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.46Aarhus
1.77Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Total expected goals
3.22
Attack rating (Aarhus / Egnatia Rrogozhinë)
1.08 / 1.35
Defence rating (Aarhus / Egnatia Rrogozhinë)
1.09 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 6.0% 6.2% 3.7% 2.4% 1 4.8% 11.3% 9.1% 5.3% 3.5% 2 4.2% 7.5% 6.6% 3.9% 2.6% 3 2.0% 3.6% 3.2% 1.9% 1.2% 4+ 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Aarhus goals. Columns: Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aarhus57%1.77
Draw22%4.57
Egnatia Rrogozhinë22%4.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.60
Under 2.538%2.67
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.55
No35%2.83
Double chance1X (Aarhus or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë)43%2.30
Handicap -1Aarhus win by 2+15%6.84
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë recent form

Aarhus 2W 2D 2L
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Aarhus lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Jesper Hansen
  2. 19 Eric Kahl
  3. 5 Frederik Tingager
  4. 25 Colin Rösler
  5. 26 Jacob Andersen
  6. 10 Kristian Arnstad
  7. 7 Markus Solbakken
  8. 29 Rasmus Carstensen
  9. 18 Callum McCowatt
  10. 8 Sebastian Jørgensen
  11. 13 Janni Serra

Bench: Daníel Grétarsson, Magnus Knudsen, Tobias Mølgaard, Jens Jønsson, Mads Hedenstad, Stefen Tchamche, James Bogere, Tobias Bech, Luka Callø, Frederik Emmery, Marius van der Raad, Zander Grantzau

Egnatia Rrogozhinë lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 98 Mario Dajsinani
  2. 28 Eljon Sota
  3. 29 Andrey Yago
  4. 33 Eneo Bitri
  5. 10 Alessandro Albanese
  6. 17 Altin Kryeziu
  7. 6 Albano Aleksi
  8. 20 Karim Loukili
  9. 22 Guillem Jaime
  10. 77 Ildi Gruda
  11. 2 Daniel Adjessa

Bench: Levan Tandilashvili, Zamiq Aliyev, Fernando Medeiros, Ibrahim Diabaté, Bruno Puja, Alessandro Kacbufi, Edison Ndreca, Numan Ajetovikj, Geralb Smajli, Jurguens Montenegro

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

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