Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 10

Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg

· Raiffeisen Arena, Linz· Referee Alexander Harkam

Full time1 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Lask Linz to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Lask LinzDrawRed Bull Salzburg

Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLask LinzDrawRed Bull Salzburg
Model37%22%41%
Market44%24%32%
Published42%24%35%
Edge-2%0%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lask Linz, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.20Now 2.15 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lask Linz2.202.15-0.05
Draw3.753.90+0.15
Red Bull Salzburg2.802.90+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.95Lask Linz
2.06Red Bull Salzburg
Total expected goals
4.01
Attack rating (Lask Linz / Red Bull Salzburg)
1.66 / 1.33
Defence rating (Lask Linz / Red Bull Salzburg)
1.22 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.5% 3.0% 3.8% 2.6% 2.2% 1 2.8% 8.0% 7.5% 5.2% 4.3% 2 3.4% 7.1% 7.3% 5.0% 4.2% 3 2.2% 4.6% 4.8% 3.3% 2.7% 4+ 1.7% 3.5% 3.6% 2.5% 2.1%

Rows: Lask Linz goals. Columns: Red Bull Salzburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 57%
Both teams to score
76%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lask Linz42%2.39
Draw24%4.25
Red Bull Salzburg35%2.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.31
Under 2.524%4.24
Both teams to scoreYes76%1.32
No24%4.10
Double chance1X (Lask Linz or draw)65%1.53
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Red Bull Salzburg)58%1.72
Handicap -1Lask Linz win by 2+20%4.95
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg recent form

Lask Linz 2W 1D 3L
Red Bull Salzburg 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lask Linz at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Red Bull Salzburg away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Lask Linz at home only, Red Bull Salzburg away only.

Expected lineups

Lask Linz lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 L. Jungwirth
  2. 25 Y. Dibango
  3. 16 A. Andrade
  4. 43 Alemão
  5. 4 X. Mbuyamba
  6. 29 F. Flecker
  7. 30 S. Horvath
  8. 10 R. Ljubičić
  9. 6 M. Bogarde
  10. 7 S. Adeniran
  11. 8 M. Usor

Bench: M. Freckleton, A. Smakaj, K. Daněk, S. Kalajdzic, A. Schöpf, K. Jørgensen, Daniel Elfadli, C. Lang, T. Schützenauer

Red Bull Salzburg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 52 Christian Zawieschitzky
  2. 31 D. Schmid
  3. 47 Valentin Zabransky
  4. 44 K. Boma
  5. 39 L. Morgalla
  6. 15 B. Mazurek
  7. 32 A. Barry
  8. 23 D. Redzic
  9. 8 S. Kitano
  10. 35 J. Lindstrøm
  11. 9 H. Tabaković

Bench: C. Früchtl, U. Tohumcu, Y. Vertessen, F. Krätzig, K. Konaté, E. Baidoo, T. Drexler, S. Lainer, G. Diakité

Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Lask Linz 5 · draws 0 · Red Bull Salzburg 5.

Lask LinzDrawsRed Bull Salzburg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Lask Linz2-1Red Bull SalzburgAustria Bundesliga
2026-04-10Red Bull Salzburg2-3Lask LinzAustria Bundesliga
2026-02-22Lask Linz1-5Red Bull SalzburgAustria Bundesliga
2025-08-23Red Bull Salzburg3-0Lask LinzAustria Bundesliga
2025-02-02Lask Linz2-1Red Bull SalzburgCup
2024-11-23Red Bull Salzburg1-2Lask LinzBundesliga
2024-08-17Lask Linz0-1Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
2024-05-19Red Bull Salzburg7-1Lask LinzBundesliga
2024-04-12Lask Linz3-1Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
2024-03-09Lask Linz0-1Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match