Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 10

Sturm Graz vs Ried

· Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz· Referee Safak Barmaksiz

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Sturm Graz to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sturm GrazDrawRied

Sturm Graz vs Ried: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSturm GrazDrawRied
Model44%24%32%
Market56%23%21%
Published53%23%24%
Edge-3%0%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sturm Graz vs Ried odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sturm Graz, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.80Now 1.67 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sturm Graz1.801.67-0.13
Draw3.764.10+0.33
Ried3.774.45+0.68

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sturm Graz and Ried expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.85Sturm Graz
1.57Ried
Total expected goals
3.43
Attack rating (Sturm Graz / Ried)
1.11 / 1.45
Defence rating (Sturm Graz / Ried)
0.86 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sturm Graz vs Ried score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 2.1% 1.2% 1 5.1% 10.4% 7.5% 3.9% 2.2% 2 5.6% 8.8% 6.9% 3.6% 2.0% 3 3.4% 5.4% 4.3% 2.2% 1.2% 4+ 2.4% 3.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.9%

Rows: Sturm Graz goals. Columns: Ried goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sturm Graz vs Ried goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sturm Graz vs Ried

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sturm Graz53%1.89
Draw23%4.31
Ried24%4.20
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%2.99
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.48
No32%3.10
Double chance1X (Sturm Graz or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Ried)47%2.13
Handicap -1Sturm Graz win by 2+24%4.11
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sturm Graz and Ried recent form

Sturm Graz 3W 1D 2L
Ried 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sturm Graz at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ried away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sturm Graz at home only, Ried away only.

Expected lineups

Sturm Graz lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 22 A. Helac
  2. 30 P. Koller
  3. 2 J. Quarshie
  4. 23 A. Malic
  5. 27 L. Balbo
  6. 39 Luca Weinhandl
  7. 4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
  8. 43 Jacob Peter Hödl
  9. 78 V. Matoshi
  10. 19 S. Seidl
  11. 14 O. Diakité

Bench: A. Vallci, A. Kayombo, S. Włodarczyk, P. Petrović, B. Beganović, N. Geyrhofer, J. Halwachs, E. Lorenz, Kelechi Nnamdi

Ried lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 A. Leitner
  2. 17 P. Pomer
  3. 28 S. Chukwudi
  4. 29 L. Capan
  5. 5 D. Radonjic
  6. 4 L. Malicsek
  7. 6 Y. Maart
  8. 11 J. Rhodes
  9. 10 J. Nasrawe
  10. 18 F. Rossdorfer
  11. 92 I. Kiese Thelin

Bench: M. Rasner, N. Sissoko, H. Hankič, J. Boguo, T. Lund Jensen, T. Kusanovic, S. Schwab, O. Steurer, Evan Eghosa Aisowieren

Sturm Graz vs Ried head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sturm Graz 7 · draws 2 · Ried 1.

Sturm GrazDrawsRied
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-08Sturm Graz1-0RiedAustria Bundesliga
2025-08-16Ried1-3Sturm GrazAustria Bundesliga
2024-08-28Ried1-3Sturm GrazCup
2022-10-30Sturm Graz2-1RiedBundesliga
2022-08-06Ried1-1Sturm GrazBundesliga
2022-03-06Ried2-2Sturm GrazBundesliga
2021-10-27Sturm Graz1-2RiedCup
2021-10-17Sturm Graz1-0RiedBundesliga
2021-02-09Sturm Graz2-1RiedBundesliga
2020-10-24Ried0-2Sturm GrazBundesliga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match