Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 10

WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK

· Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Innsbruck· Referee Stefan Macanovic

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was WSG Wattens to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WSG WattensDrawGrazer AK

WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWSG WattensDrawGrazer AK
Model60%22%18%
Market38%28%34%
Published44%26%30%
Edge+5%-1%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.15.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices WSG Wattens below our published probability: +5.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK odds movement

Median bookmaker price on WSG Wattens, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.59Now 2.44 -0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
WSG Wattens2.592.44-0.15
Draw3.333.40+0.07
Grazer AK2.502.75+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

WSG Wattens and Grazer AK expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.21WSG Wattens
1.15Grazer AK
Total expected goals
3.36
Attack rating (WSG Wattens / Grazer AK)
1.13 / 0.94
Defence rating (WSG Wattens / Grazer AK)
0.97 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 3.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 1 6.8% 9.7% 5.1% 2.0% 0.7% 2 8.5% 9.8% 5.6% 2.2% 0.8% 3 6.2% 7.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 4+ 5.7% 6.6% 3.8% 1.5% 0.5%

Rows: WSG Wattens goals. Columns: Grazer AK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2WSG Wattens44%2.28
Draw26%3.84
Grazer AK30%3.33
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.88
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.62
Double chance1X (WSG Wattens or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Grazer AK)56%1.78
Handicap -1WSG Wattens win by 2+39%2.59
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

WSG Wattens and Grazer AK recent form

WSG Wattens 3W 1D 2L
Grazer AK 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

WSG Wattens at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Grazer AK away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-4
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
3.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: WSG Wattens at home only, Grazer AK away only.

Expected lineups

WSG Wattens lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Hamzić
  2. 28 M. Oswald
  3. 3 D. Gugganig
  4. 23 M. Boras
  5. 14 D. Kubatta
  6. 30 M. Taferner
  7. 6 Marc Striednig
  8. 37 M. Wels
  9. 36 T. Goiginger
  10. 18 H. Balić
  11. 11 M. Şatin

Bench: D. Murray, N. Frederiksen, T. Sabitzer, A. Eckmayr, L. Hinterseer, M. Olakigbe, D. Jaunegg, Raphael Gschösser, N. Čelić

Grazer AK lineup · 3-1-4-2

  1. 23 C. Stanković
  2. 27 Y. Oberleitner
  3. 21 M. Sollbauer
  4. 3 L. Vraa-Jensen
  5. 24 C. Cvetko
  6. 32 L. Klassen
  7. 34 P. Michorl
  8. 14 J. Italiano
  9. 28 Anderson
  10. 25 A. Hofleitner
  11. 11 M. Große

Bench: A. Smits, T. Koch, D. Maderner, C. Lichtenberger, S. Mandey, C. Nicht, T. Trummer, M. Gragger, Petar Markovic

WSG Wattens vs Grazer AK head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: WSG Wattens 2 · draws 4 · Grazer AK 3.

WSG WattensDrawsGrazer AK
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Grazer AK4-0WSG WattensAustria Bundesliga
2026-03-21WSG Wattens1-5Grazer AKAustria Bundesliga
2026-03-08WSG Wattens2-0Grazer AKAustria Bundesliga
2025-08-16Grazer AK1-1WSG WattensAustria Bundesliga
2025-05-23WSG Wattens1-1Grazer AKBundesliga
2025-03-29Grazer AK0-0WSG WattensBundesliga
2024-11-09Grazer AK2-1WSG WattensBundesliga
2024-08-10WSG Wattens0-0Grazer AKBundesliga
2021-09-22Grazer AK2-4WSG WattensCup

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match