Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz

· Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon· Referee Nick Walsh

Full time2 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Sporting CP to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sporting CPDrawLask Linz

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSporting CPDrawLask Linz
Model68%17%15%
Market75%15%10%
Published73%15%11%
Edge-2%+1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sporting CP, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.26Now 1.27 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sporting CP1.261.27+0.01
Draw6.226.45+0.23
Lask Linz9.149.75+0.61

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sporting CP and Lask Linz expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.88Sporting CP
1.39Lask Linz
Total expected goals
4.27
Attack rating (Sporting CP / Lask Linz)
1.42 / 1.51
Defence rating (Sporting CP / Lask Linz)
0.70 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 1 3.5% 6.1% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8% 2 5.8% 8.1% 5.6% 2.6% 1.2% 3 5.6% 7.7% 5.4% 2.5% 1.2% 4+ 8.1% 11.3% 7.9% 3.6% 1.7%

Rows: Sporting CP goals. Columns: Lask Linz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sporting CP vs Lask Linz

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sporting CP73%1.36
Draw15%6.52
Lask Linz11%8.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%5.01
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.40
No29%3.51
Double chance1X (Sporting CP or draw)89%1.13
12 (either side)85%1.18
X2 (draw or Lask Linz)27%3.77
Handicap -1Sporting CP win by 2+49%2.06
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sporting CP and Lask Linz recent form

Sporting CP 4W 2D 0L
Lask Linz 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sporting CP at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Lask Linz away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting CP at home only, Lask Linz away only.

Injuries & availability

Sporting CP absences

  • N. Santos knee injury
  • R. Zalazar thigh injury
  • Z. Debast injury

Lask Linz absences

  • A. Smakaj off the roster
  • G. Bello muscle injury
  • K. Cheikne off the roster
  • M. Usor shoulder injury
  • R. Harakate knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sporting CP lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 30 Kaique
  2. 20 M. Araújo
  3. 25 Gonçalo Inácio
  4. 72 Eduardo Quaresma
  5. 22 Iván Fresneda
  6. 8 João Simões
  7. 5 Sergi Altimira
  8. 77 I. Doumbia
  9. 19 N. Irankunda
  10. 97 L. Suárez
  11. 10 Geny Catamo

Bench: Rui Silva, S. Andersen, F. Ioannidis, Rafael Ferreira Nel, G. Vagiannidis, Pedro Lima, J. Derry, Luis Guilherme, Rodrigo Dias, Ibrahima Ba, Flávio Gonçalves, Eduardo Felicíssimo

Lask Linz lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 L. Jungwirth
  2. 25 Y. Dibango
  3. 16 A. Andrade
  4. 43 Alemão
  5. 4 X. Mbuyamba
  6. 20 K. Jørgensen
  7. 27 C. Lang
  8. 30 S. Horvath
  9. 10 R. Ljubičić
  10. 9 K. Daněk
  11. 11 S. Kalajdzic

Bench: M. Freckleton, M. Bogarde, S. Adeniran, M. Usor, A. Schöpf, M. Verhaeghe, Daniel Elfadli, F. Flecker, T. Schützenauer, N. Kane

Sporting CP vs Lask Linz head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Sporting CP 1 · draws 0 · Lask Linz 2.

Sporting CPDrawsLask Linz
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2020-10-01Sporting CP1-4Lask LinzUEFA Europa League
2019-12-12Lask Linz3-0Sporting CPUEFA Europa League
2019-10-03Sporting CP2-1Lask LinzUEFA Europa League

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match