Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 10

TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC

· Profertil Arena, Hartberg· Referee Josef Spurny

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was TSV Hartberg to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TSV HartbergDrawWolfsberger AC

TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTSV HartbergDrawWolfsberger AC
Model65%18%17%
Market47%25%28%
Published52%23%25%
Edge+4%-2%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.44.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices TSV Hartberg below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on TSV Hartberg, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.38Now 1.99 -0.39
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
TSV Hartberg2.381.99-0.39
Draw3.503.70+0.20
Wolfsberger AC2.693.40+0.71

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.78TSV Hartberg
1.44Wolfsberger AC
Total expected goals
4.22
Attack rating (TSV Hartberg / Wolfsberger AC)
1.38 / 0.83
Defence rating (TSV Hartberg / Wolfsberger AC)
1.37 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 1 3.5% 6.5% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0% 2 5.7% 8.2% 5.9% 2.8% 1.4% 3 5.2% 7.6% 5.5% 2.6% 1.3% 4+ 7.2% 10.3% 7.5% 3.6% 1.8%

Rows: TSV Hartberg goals. Columns: Wolfsberger AC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 79%
Over 3.5 61%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2TSV Hartberg52%1.94
Draw23%4.26
Wolfsberger AC25%4.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579%1.26
Under 2.521%4.82
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.38
No28%3.60
Double chance1X (TSV Hartberg or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)77%1.31
X2 (draw or Wolfsberger AC)48%2.06
Handicap -1TSV Hartberg win by 2+46%2.20
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC recent form

TSV Hartberg 3W 2D 1L
Wolfsberger AC 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

TSV Hartberg at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wolfsberger AC away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: TSV Hartberg at home only, Wolfsberger AC away only.

Expected lineups

TSV Hartberg lineup

  1. 7 A. Gattermayer
  2. 4 B. Markuš
  3. 6 Habib Coulibaly
  4. 17 J. Karner
  5. 27 K. Schopp
  6. 16 M. Dalpiaz
  7. 22 M. Hoffman
  8. 95 Nikolaus Feldhofer
  9. 14 P. Komposch
  10. 5 Y. Diarra
  11. 91 Á. Pécsi

Bench: L. Pazourek, A. Urrutia, O. Lukic, J. Drew, L. Spendlhofer, Paul Bratschko, L. Marić, T. Kainz, A. Radulović

Wolfsberger AC lineup

  1. 11 A. Schwarz
  2. 15 Cheikh Mamadou Diabaté
  3. 10 D. Avdijaj
  4. 36 D. Fitz
  5. 31 F. Wohlmuth
  6. 9 G. Vrioni
  7. 12 L. Gliklich
  8. 30 M. Sulzner
  9. 6 R. Behounek
  10. 49 S. Karamoko
  11. 8 S. Piesinger

Bench: L. Gütlbauer, L. Hassler, Marco Schabauer, T. Schriebl, P. Verhounig, M. Pink, E. Agyemang, Matteo Kitz

TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: TSV Hartberg 5 · draws 2 · Wolfsberger AC 3.

TSV HartbergDrawsWolfsberger AC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-11-08Wolfsberger AC1-2TSV HartbergAustria Bundesliga
2025-09-20TSV Hartberg2-2Wolfsberger ACAustria Bundesliga
2025-05-01Wolfsberger AC1-0TSV HartbergCup
2025-03-01TSV Hartberg0-3Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
2024-10-05Wolfsberger AC2-3TSV HartbergBundesliga
2023-12-10TSV Hartberg2-0Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
2023-09-02Wolfsberger AC0-3TSV HartbergBundesliga
2023-05-20TSV Hartberg0-2Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
2023-04-21Wolfsberger AC2-2TSV HartbergBundesliga
2023-03-04TSV Hartberg2-1Wolfsberger ACBundesliga

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match