Updated

UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3

Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg

· Stadion Z’dežele, Celje· Referee John Brooks

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Red Bull Salzburg to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CeljeDrawRed Bull Salzburg

Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCeljeDrawRed Bull Salzburg
Model16%29%54%
Market16%22%62%
Published16%24%60%
Edge0%+2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.67.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Red Bull Salzburg, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.80Now 1.53 -0.27
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Celje4.195.93+1.74
Draw3.944.43+0.49
Red Bull Salzburg1.801.53-0.27

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Celje and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.67Celje
1.43Red Bull Salzburg
Total expected goals
2.09
Attack rating (Celje / Red Bull Salzburg)
0.63 / 1.35
Defence rating (Celje / Red Bull Salzburg)
0.90 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.5% 16.4% 12.6% 6.0% 2.9% 1 7.0% 12.9% 8.4% 4.0% 2.0% 2 2.7% 3.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6% 3 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Celje goals. Columns: Red Bull Salzburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
38%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Celje16%6.20
Draw24%4.25
Red Bull Salzburg60%1.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.86
Under 2.565%1.54
Both teams to scoreYes38%2.62
No62%1.62
Double chance1X (Celje or draw)40%2.52
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Red Bull Salzburg)84%1.19
Handicap -1Red Bull Salzburg win by 2+28%3.56
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Celje and Red Bull Salzburg recent form

Celje 1W 2D 3L
Red Bull Salzburg 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Celje at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Red Bull Salzburg away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Celje at home only, Red Bull Salzburg away only.

Injuries & availability

Celje absences

  • J. Pisek knee injury

Red Bull Salzburg absences

  • A. Chase off the roster
  • E. Aguilar muscle injury
  • F. Matijasevic off the roster
  • J. Moser off the roster
  • J. Omoregie achilles tendon injury
  • K. Konate injury
  • N. Veratschnig knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Celje lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 Žan-Luk Leban
  2. 11 M. Avdyli
  3. 6 A. Tutyškinas
  4. 44 Ł. Bejger
  5. 2 P. Širvys
  6. 8 M. Kvesić
  7. 19 M. Zabukovnik
  8. 10 S. Sešlar
  9. 7 B. Verbič
  10. 9 B. Kramer
  11. 25 V. Tusha

Bench: D. Hrka, L. Kolar, Papa Mustapha Daniel, Ž. Žužek, A. Dionkou, Ž. Frelih, D. Suhovrsnik, L. Koútris, A. Kučys, M. Ivanšek, Y. Dukuly

Red Bull Salzburg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 52 Christian Zawieschitzky
  2. 31 D. Schmid
  3. 21 T. Drexler
  4. 44 K. Boma
  5. 39 L. Morgalla
  6. 7 U. Tohumcu
  7. 32 A. Barry
  8. 11 Y. Vertessen
  9. 8 S. Kitano
  10. 23 D. Redzic
  11. 9 H. Tabaković

Bench: C. Früchtl, J. Mellberg, S. Diabaté, F. Krätzig, B. Mazurek, K. Konaté, S. Lainer, G. Diakité, A. Camara, J. Lindstrøm, Nikola Šarčević, Valentin Zabransky

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

Before and after this match