Updated

Austria Bundesliga · Matchday 11

Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz

· Lavanttal-Arena, Wolfsburg· Referee Alain Sadikovski

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Sturm Graz to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Wolfsberger ACDrawSturm Graz

Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWolfsberger ACDrawSturm Graz
Model20%25%56%
Market20%23%57%
Published20%23%57%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.03.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sturm Graz, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-23.

Opened 1.57Now 1.65 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Wolfsberger AC4.844.57-0.27
Draw4.304.12-0.17
Sturm Graz1.571.65+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.03Wolfsberger AC
1.86Sturm Graz
Total expected goals
2.88
Attack rating (Wolfsberger AC / Sturm Graz)
0.65 / 1.19
Defence rating (Wolfsberger AC / Sturm Graz)
1.22 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 9.3% 9.6% 6.0% 4.2% 1 4.7% 11.7% 9.9% 6.1% 4.3% 2 2.9% 5.5% 5.1% 3.1% 2.2% 3 1.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 0.8% 4+ 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Wolfsberger AC goals. Columns: Sturm Graz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wolfsberger AC20%4.94
Draw23%4.31
Sturm Graz57%1.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.82
Under 2.545%2.22
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.81
No45%2.23
Double chance1X (Wolfsberger AC or draw)43%2.30
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Sturm Graz)80%1.25
Handicap -1Sturm Graz win by 2+33%3.05
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz recent form

Wolfsberger AC 0W 0D 6L
Sturm Graz 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wolfsberger AC at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

Sturm Graz away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Wolfsberger AC at home only, Sturm Graz away only.

Expected lineups

Wolfsberger AC lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 12 L. Gliklich
  2. 30 M. Sulzner
  3. 6 R. Behounek
  4. 35 Matteo Kitz
  5. 11 A. Schwarz
  6. 36 D. Fitz
  7. 8 S. Piesinger
  8. 31 F. Wohlmuth
  9. 49 S. Karamoko
  10. 10 D. Avdijaj
  11. 23 P. Verhounig

Bench: L. Gütlbauer, G. Vrioni, Cheikh Mamadou Diabaté, Marco Schabauer, O. Mamageishvili, T. Schriebl, M. Pink, E. Agyemang

Sturm Graz lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 A. Helac
  2. 28 J. Heil
  3. 30 P. Koller
  4. 2 J. Quarshie
  5. 23 A. Malic
  6. 4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
  7. 39 Luca Weinhandl
  8. 78 V. Matoshi
  9. 43 Jacob Peter Hödl
  10. 19 S. Seidl
  11. 26 B. Beganović

Bench: A. Vallci, A. Kayombo, O. Diakité, S. Włodarczyk, P. Petrović, M. Grgic, L. Balbo, J. Halwachs

Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 3 · draws 4 · Sturm Graz 3.

Wolfsberger ACDrawsSturm Graz
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-01Wolfsberger AC2-2Sturm GrazAustria Bundesliga
2025-10-26Sturm Graz1-3Wolfsberger ACAustria Bundesliga
2025-05-24Sturm Graz1-1Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
2025-03-30Wolfsberger AC1-1Sturm GrazBundesliga
2025-02-15Wolfsberger AC3-0Sturm GrazBundesliga
2024-09-22Sturm Graz0-3Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
2024-03-03Sturm Graz4-0Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
2023-10-08Wolfsberger AC1-2Sturm GrazBundesliga
2022-10-16Sturm Graz3-2Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
2022-07-23Wolfsberger AC1-1Sturm GrazBundesliga

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match