Sturm Graz 1-0 Marseille: Prediction vs Result 22.10.26

Sturm Graz vs Marseille: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sturm Graz	Draw	Marseille
Model	64%	19%	17%
Market	23%	25%	51%
Published	34%	24%	43%
Edge	+10%	-2%	-8%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 2.03Now 1.86 -0.17

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Sturm Graz	3.50	4.05	+0.55
Draw	3.66	3.74	+0.08
Marseille	2.03	1.86	-0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sturm Graz and Marseille expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.63Sturm Graz

1.35Marseille

Total expected goals: 3.98
Attack rating (Sturm Graz / Marseille): 1.20 / 1.22
Defence rating (Sturm Graz / Marseille): 0.95 / 1.43

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.5% 1.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 1 4.2% 7.3% 4.5% 2.0% 0.9% 2 6.5% 8.7% 5.9% 2.6% 1.2% 3 5.7% 7.7% 5.2% 2.3% 1.1% 4+ 7.0% 9.5% 6.4% 2.9% 1.3%

Rows: Sturm Graz goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 76%

Over 3.5 56%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sturm Graz vs Marseille

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sturm Graz	34%	2.97
	Draw	24%	4.22
	Marseille	43%	2.35
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	76%	1.32
	Under 2.5	24%	4.15
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.27
Double chance	1X (Sturm Graz or draw)	57%	1.74
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Marseille)	66%	1.51
Handicap -1	Marseille win by 2+	7%	13.79
	Push (exactly one goal)	10%	—