Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a strong likelihood for Dortmund at 70%, with a projected scoreline of 2-1 (9%). The expected goals support this, showing Dortmund at 2.63 and Elversberg at 1.32.
However, the main reason this could be incorrect lies in Elversberg's recent form, which includes a mix of results: W-L-L-W-L-D. This inconsistency could lead to an unexpected performance, impacting their ability to compete against a dominant Dortmund side. The model also suggests a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% probability for both teams to score, further emphasizing the potential for a high-scoring match.
Why this pick: Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia Dortmund 10, SV Elversberg 9). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg: model vs market
| Source | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| Published | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.32, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.28 | 1.29 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 6.26 | 6.15 | -0.11 |
| SV Elversberg | 8.06 | 8.62 | +0.56 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.95
- Attack rating (Borussia Dortmund / SV Elversberg)
- 1.16 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Borussia Dortmund / SV Elversberg)
- 0.90 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: SV Elversberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.85 | |
| SV Elversberg | 13% | 7.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Borussia Dortmund or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or SV Elversberg) | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg recent form
Borussia Dortmund
3W 2D 1L
SV Elversberg
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Borussia Dortmund at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SV Elversberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund at home only, SV Elversberg away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich 2026-11-07
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page 2026-11-07
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2026-11-07
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 2026-11-07
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-11-08
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Borussia Dortmund, previous: Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis: odds and pick
- SV Elversberg, previous: SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 prediction