Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04, Hoffenheim holds a 60% probability to win, while Schalke's chances sit at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at an 11% frequency. Hoffenheim's expected goals are 2.43 compared to Schalke's 0.92, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
However, recent form could impact the match outcome. Hoffenheim has recorded a mixed bag of results with L-D-W-W-W-L, while FC Schalke 04 has struggled, posting L-L-D-L-L-D. This difference in recent performance may challenge the projected probabilities, as Schalke could improve their form unexpectedly.
Why this pick: Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hoffenheim 10, FC Schalke 04 9). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04: model vs market
| Source | Hoffenheim | Draw | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 1.62 | 1.62 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.46 | 4.42 | -0.04 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 4.63 | 4.85 | +0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Hoffenheim / FC Schalke 04)
- 1.12 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Hoffenheim / FC Schalke 04)
- 0.83 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hoffenheim goals. Columns: FC Schalke 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.54 | |
| FC Schalke 04 | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hoffenheim or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Schalke 04) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win by 2+ | 43% | 2.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04 recent form
Hoffenheim
3W 1D 2L
FC Schalke 04
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hoffenheim at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Schalke 04 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hoffenheim at home only, FC Schalke 04 away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich 2026-11-07
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-11-07
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page 2026-11-07
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2026-11-07
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 2026-11-07
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-11-08
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Hoffenheim, previous: Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim, 2026-11-05
- FC Schalke 04, previous: FC Schalke 04 v RasenBallsport Leipzig analysis