Freiburg vs Union Berlin preview
Freiburg has a 64% probability of winning against Union Berlin, with an expected goals tally of 2.95 compared to Union's 1.19. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Freiburg's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Union Berlin has only 1 win in the same span, indicating a potential advantage for Freiburg.
However, Union Berlin has historically performed well against Freiburg, winning 3 of their last 6 encounters and drawing the other 3. This head-to-head record could challenge Freiburg's strong statistical edge. Additionally, both teams to score has a 67% likelihood, suggesting that while Freiburg may dominate, Union Berlin could still find the net.
Why this pick: Freiburg vs Union Berlin
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Freiburg 10, Union Berlin 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Freiburg vs Union Berlin: model vs market
| Source | Freiburg | Draw | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Published | 64% | 20% | 15% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.95 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.56, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Freiburg vs Union Berlin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 1.50 | 1.52 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.57 | 4.55 | -0.02 |
| Union Berlin | 5.88 | 5.97 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Freiburg and Union Berlin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.14
- Attack rating (Freiburg / Union Berlin)
- 1.25 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Freiburg / Union Berlin)
- 1.01 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Freiburg vs Union Berlin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: Union Berlin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Freiburg vs Union Berlin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Freiburg vs Union Berlin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 64% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Union Berlin | 15% | 6.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Freiburg or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Union Berlin) | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win by 2+ | 48% | 2.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Freiburg and Union Berlin recent form
Freiburg
3W 0D 3L
Union Berlin
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Freiburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Union Berlin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Freiburg at home only, Union Berlin away only.
Freiburg vs Union Berlin head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Freiburg 0 · draws 3 · Union Berlin 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Freiburg | 0-1 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-01 | Union Berlin | 0-0 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-03-30 | Freiburg | 1-2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-08 | Union Berlin | 0-0 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-05-18 | Union Berlin | 2-1 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-13 | Freiburg | 0-0 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich 2026-11-07
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-11-07
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page 2026-11-07
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2026-11-07
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 2026-11-07
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-11-08
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Freiburg, previous: Trabzonspor – Freiburg, 2026-11-05
- Union Berlin, previous: Union Berlin vs FC Cologne: odds and pick