VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen, VfB Stuttgart holds a 60% probability of winning, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The model indicates a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 71%. Stuttgart's expected goals stand at 2.43, while Werder Bremen's is 1.52.
However, the recent head-to-head record shows a balanced competition, with both teams winning 2 of their last 6 encounters and 2 matches ending in draws. This parity could challenge Stuttgart's strong statistical edge. Recent form also reveals Stuttgart's inconsistency with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Werder Bremen has 4 wins in their last 6.
Why this pick: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (VfB Stuttgart 10, Werder Bremen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: model vs market
| Source | VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 19% |
| Published | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.31.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.61, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.47 | 1.57 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 5.18 | 4.75 | -0.43 |
| Werder Bremen | 5.47 | 4.82 | -0.65 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (VfB Stuttgart / Werder Bremen)
- 1.00 / 1.02
- Defence rating (VfB Stuttgart / Werder Bremen)
- 0.89 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: VfB Stuttgart goals. Columns: Werder Bremen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Werder Bremen | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (VfB Stuttgart or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Werder Bremen) | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win by 2+ | 27% | 3.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen recent form
VfB Stuttgart
2W 1D 3L
Werder Bremen
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
VfB Stuttgart at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Werder Bremen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart at home only, Werder Bremen away only.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 2 · draws 2 · Werder Bremen 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-14 | Werder Bremen | 0-4 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-13 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-30 | Werder Bremen | 2-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-21 | Werder Bremen | 2-1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2023-12-02 | VfB Stuttgart | 2-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich 2026-11-07
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-11-07
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page 2026-11-07
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2026-11-07
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-11-08
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- VfB Stuttgart, previous: Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
- Werder Bremen, previous: Werder Bremen – Hoffenheim, 2026-10-31