FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between FC Cologne and Bayer Leverkusen, the model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 51% chance to win compared to FC Cologne's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% probability. FC Cologne's expected goals stand at 2.16, while Bayer Leverkusen's is at 1.78, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with FC Cologne recording W-D-L-W-L-D and Bayer Leverkusen at L-W-L-W-W-W. The model predicts a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams to score at 73%. The head-to-head record favors Bayer Leverkusen, who have won all of the last 4 encounters against FC Cologne.
Why this pick: FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Cologne 10, Bayer Leverkusen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen: model vs market
| Source | FC Cologne | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Published | 27% | 23% | 51% |
| Edge | +5% | +1% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne | 4.31 | 4.00 | -0.31 |
| Draw | 4.39 | 4.29 | -0.10 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.66 | 1.75 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cologne and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.75
- Attack rating (FC Cologne / Bayer Leverkusen)
- 1.17 / 1.41
- Defence rating (FC Cologne / Bayer Leverkusen)
- 0.86 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cologne goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 27% | 3.76 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cologne or draw) | 49% | 2.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Bayer Leverkusen) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+ | 19% | 5.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Cologne and Bayer Leverkusen recent form
FC Cologne
2W 2D 2L
Bayer Leverkusen
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cologne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bayer Leverkusen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cologne at home only, Bayer Leverkusen away only.
FC Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: FC Cologne 0 · draws 0 · Bayer Leverkusen 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | FC Cologne | 1-2 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-13 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-03 | FC Cologne | 0-2 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-08 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3-0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich 2026-11-07
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-11-07
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page 2026-11-07
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2026-11-07
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 2026-11-07
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC Cologne, previous: Union Berlin vs FC Cologne: odds and pick
- Bayer Leverkusen, previous: Bayer Leverkusen – Marseille, 2026-11-05