Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 9

Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach

· Volksparkstadion, Hamburger

TipsterGrid prediction Borussia M.Gladbach to win

Ablended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hamburger SVDrawBorussia M.Gladbach
  • WhyThe market prices Borussia M.Gladbach below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
  • RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 63%.
Best market odds
Hamburger SV2.49 Draw3.86 Borussia M.Gladbach2.83

Price as of

Expected return at 2.83: +5.6% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach preview

In the fixture between Hamburger SV and Borussia M.Gladbach, the probabilities are evenly split at 37% for both teams to win, with a 26% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which has a 9% probability. Over 2.5 goals has a strong likelihood at 62%, while both teams to score stands at 65%.

Hamburger SV's expected goals are 1.56, compared to Borussia M.Gladbach's 1.79, indicating a slight edge for the visitors. Recent form shows Hamburger SV with a record of L-L-W-W-W-L and Borussia M.Gladbach at D-W-W-L-L-L. The head-to-head record reveals no wins for either side in the last two encounters, with 2 draws.

Why this pick: Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hamburger SV 10, Borussia M.Gladbach 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Hamburger SVBorussia M.Gladbach
1.15 xG per 90 1.57
1.15 npxG per 90 1.40
18.6 PPDA 13.0
4.6 Deep completions per 90 5.6
0.83 xPTS per 90 0.95

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHamburger SVDrawBorussia M.Gladbach
Model28%27%45%
Market40%25%35%
Published37%26%37%
Edge-3%0%+2%
  • The market prices Borussia M.Gladbach below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.83, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Borussia M.Gladbach, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 2.74Now 2.75 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hamburger SV2.372.44+0.06
Draw3.743.65-0.09
Borussia M.Gladbach2.742.75+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hamburger SV and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56Hamburger SV
1.84Borussia M.Gladbach
Total expected goals
3.40
Attack rating (Hamburger SV / Borussia M.Gladbach)
0.81 / 1.06
Defence rating (Hamburger SV / Borussia M.Gladbach)
1.20 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 5.2% 6.6% 4.1% 2.8% 1 3.4% 12.1% 9.3% 5.7% 4.0% 2 3.8% 7.1% 6.5% 4.0% 2.8% 3 1.8% 3.3% 3.0% 1.9% 1.3% 4+ 0.9% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Hamburger SV goals. Columns: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hamburger SV37%2.72
Draw26%3.87
Borussia M.Gladbach37%2.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.61
Under 2.538%2.63
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.86
Double chance1X (Hamburger SV or draw)63%1.60
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Borussia M.Gladbach)63%1.58
Handicap -1Borussia M.Gladbach win by 2+27%3.77
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Hamburger SV and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form

Hamburger SV 3W 0D 3L
Borussia M.Gladbach 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hamburger SV at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Borussia M.Gladbach away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Hamburger SV at home only, Borussia M.Gladbach away only.

Injuries & availability

Hamburger SV absences

  • B. Nadir muscle injury
  • F. Vieira thigh injury
  • M. Vuskovic doping
  • N. Capaldo muscle injury
  • N. Remberg knee injury
  • Y. Poulsen hip injury

Borussia M.Gladbach absences

  • E. Leopold knee injury
  • F. Fleck muscle injury
  • F. Honorat muscle injury
  • H. Bolin muscle injury
  • J. Leszczynski knee injury
  • K. Diks personal reasons
  • M. Nicolas injury
  • N. Kuhn muscle injury
  • T. Kleindienst muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Hamburger SV 4 · draws 4 · Borussia M.Gladbach 2.

Hamburger SVDrawsBorussia M.Gladbach
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-17Hamburger SV0-0Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2025-08-24Borussia M.Gladbach0-0Hamburger SVBundesliga
2018-05-12Hamburger SV2-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2017-12-15Borussia M.Gladbach3-1Hamburger SVBundesliga
2017-03-12Hamburger SV2-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2017-03-01Hamburger SV1-2Borussia M.GladbachDFB Pokal
2016-10-15Borussia M.Gladbach0-0Hamburger SVBundesliga
2016-02-14Hamburger SV3-2Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2015-09-11Borussia M.Gladbach0-3Hamburger SVBundesliga
2015-02-22Hamburger SV1-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Borussia M.Gladbach to win Predicted score 1 – 2 A Bet on Borussia M.Gladbach
Our pick: Borussia M.Gladbach to win 18+ Bet Now