Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich preview
In the Bundesliga fixture between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, the model gives Bayern a strong 64% probability to win, compared to Mainz's 18%. The expected goals further reflect this disparity, with Bayern at 2.98 and Mainz at 1.85. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 7% probability, indicating a competitive match.
However, Mainz's recent form shows inconsistency with three losses in their last five matches. While Bayern's form includes three wins in their last five, their recent draws suggest potential vulnerabilities. The model indicates an 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance for both teams to score, which could complicate the outcome.
Why this pick: Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Mainz 05 10, Bayern Munich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich: model vs market
| Source | Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 18% | 64% |
| Market | 18% | 17% | 65% |
| Published | 18% | 17% | 64% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.87.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 6.05 | 6.90 | +0.85 |
| Draw | 5.83 | 6.24 | +0.41 |
| Bayern Munich | 1.39 | 1.33 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.55
- Attack rating (Mainz 05 / Bayern Munich)
- 1.35 / 1.79
- Defence rating (Mainz 05 / Bayern Munich)
- 1.04 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mainz 05 goals. Columns: Bayern Munich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mainz 05 | 18% | 5.50 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.73 | |
| Bayern Munich | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 1.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 16% | 6.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.28 |
| No | 22% | 4.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mainz 05 or draw) | 36% | 2.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Bayern Munich) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich recent form
Mainz 05
2W 0D 4L
Bayern Munich
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mainz 05 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bayern Munich away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- They average 5.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mainz 05 at home only, Bayern Munich away only.
Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Mainz 05 2 · draws 1 · Bayern Munich 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Mainz 05 | 3-4 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-14 | Bayern Munich | 2-2 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-26 | Bayern Munich | 3-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-14 | Mainz 05 | 2-1 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2024-10-30 | Mainz 05 | 0-4 | Bayern Munich | DFB Pokal |
| 2024-03-09 | Bayern Munich | 8-1 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-21 | Mainz 05 | 1-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2023-04-22 | Mainz 05 | 3-1 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2023-02-01 | Mainz 05 | 0-4 | Bayern Munich | DFB Pokal |
| 2022-10-29 | Bayern Munich | 6-2 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-11-07
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page 2026-11-07
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2026-11-07
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 2026-11-07
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-11-08
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Mainz 05, previous: SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05 prediction
- Bayern Munich, previous: Atletico Madrid – Bayern Munich, 2026-11-03