Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille preview

Bayer Leverkusen faces Marseille with a 69% probability of winning compared to Marseille's 13%. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, with an expected goals tally of 3.57 for Leverkusen and 1.38 for Marseille. Leverkusen's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Marseille has struggled with 3 wins in their last 6.

Despite Leverkusen's strong position, the outcome could be influenced by Marseille's recent victory trend. They have won 3 of their last 6 matches, which could provide a boost. Additionally, there's a 73% chance both teams will score, indicating potential for a more competitive match than the numbers suggest.

Why this pick: Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bayer Leverkusen 10, Marseille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Bayer LeverkusenMarseille

1.86 xG per 90 1.85

1.86 npxG per 90 1.57

11.3 PPDA 11.5

11.7 Deep completions per 90 8.0

1.45 xPTS per 90 0.97

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Marseille
Model	73%	15%	13%
Market	69%	18%	13%
Published	70%	17%	13%
Edge	+1%	-1%	0%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.22 vs 1.40.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.41, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.40Now 1.37 -0.03

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Bayer Leverkusen	1.40	1.37	-0.03
Draw	4.93	5.28	+0.35
Marseille	6.45	7.10	+0.65

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.22Bayer Leverkusen

1.40Marseille

Total expected goals: 4.62
Attack rating (Bayer Leverkusen / Marseille): 1.63 / 1.09
Defence rating (Bayer Leverkusen / Marseille): 1.07 / 1.28

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1 2.7% 4.9% 3.1% 1.4% 0.7% 2 5.1% 7.1% 5.0% 2.3% 1.1% 3 5.5% 7.7% 5.4% 2.5% 1.2% 4+ 9.9% 13.9% 9.7% 4.5% 2.2%

Rows: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%

Over 1.5 95%

Over 2.5 84%

Over 3.5 68%

Both teams to score: 73%
No goals (0–0): 1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bayer Leverkusen	70%	1.43
	Draw	17%	5.86
	Marseille	13%	7.61
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	84%	1.19
	Under 2.5	16%	6.25
Both teams to score	Yes	73%	1.37
	No	27%	3.67
Double chance	1X (Bayer Leverkusen or draw)	87%	1.15
	12 (either side)	83%	1.21
	X2 (draw or Marseille)	30%	3.31
Handicap -1	Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+	55%	1.82
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—