Trabzonspor vs Freiburg preview
Trabzonspor faces Freiburg with a 44% probability of winning compared to Freiburg's 32%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% probability. Trabzonspor's expected goals stand at 2.82, indicating a strong attacking performance, while Freiburg's expected goals are significantly lower at 1.45.
However, Trabzonspor's recent form shows six consecutive wins, while Freiburg has experienced a mixed bag with three wins and three losses in their last six matches. This disparity in form could influence the match outcome, as Freiburg may perform better than expected despite the statistics. The model also indicates an 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% probability that both teams will score.
Trabzonspor vs Freiburg: model vs market
| Source | Trabzonspor | Draw | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 17% | 15% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Published | 46% | 24% | 31% |
| Edge | +7% | -2% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Trabzonspor below our published probability: +7.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +16.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Trabzonspor vs Freiburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Trabzonspor, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | 2.53 | 2.45 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.66 | +0.06 |
| Freiburg | 2.53 | 2.60 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Trabzonspor and Freiburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.11
- Attack rating (Trabzonspor / Freiburg)
- 1.49 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Trabzonspor / Freiburg)
- 0.79 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Trabzonspor vs Freiburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Trabzonspor goals. Columns: Freiburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Trabzonspor vs Freiburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Trabzonspor vs Freiburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trabzonspor | 46% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Freiburg | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Trabzonspor or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Freiburg) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Trabzonspor win by 2+ | 48% | 2.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Trabzonspor and Freiburg recent form
Trabzonspor
6W 0D 0L
Freiburg
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Trabzonspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Freiburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Trabzonspor at home only, Freiburg away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
- FC Midtjylland v Ajax — match page 2026-11-05
- Aarhus v SC Braga — match page 2026-11-05
- Atalanta v Kairat Almaty — match page 2026-11-05
- FK Crvena Zvezda vs Inter Club d'Escaldes 2026-11-05
- Lincoln Red Imps FC vs HNK Hajduk Split 2026-11-05
- FC Thun v Heart Of Midlothian — match page 2026-11-05
- KuPS v Gent — match page 2026-11-05
- Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka — team news & stats 2026-11-05
Before and after this match
- Trabzonspor, previous: Trabzonspor v Heart Of Midlothian analysis
- Freiburg, previous: Augsburg – Freiburg, 2026-10-31
- Freiburg, next: Freiburg – Union Berlin, 2026-11-08