Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim Prediction 05.11.26: Score & BTTS Tips

Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim preview

Crystal Palace faces Hoffenheim with a 43% probability of winning compared to Hoffenheim's 32%. The most likely scoreline projected by our model is 2-1, occurring at a 7% likelihood. Crystal Palace's expected goals stand at 1.38, while Hoffenheim's are notably higher at 1.89.

Despite Crystal Palace's home advantage, their recent form shows L-W-L-D-L-L, which could impact their performance. Hoffenheim, on the other hand, has a more favorable recent record of L-D-W-W-W-L. Both teams to score has a 65% probability, and the model suggests a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair.

Why this pick: Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Crystal Palace 10, Hoffenheim 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Crystal PalaceHoffenheim

1.18 xG per 90 2.02

1.18 npxG per 90 1.89

14.7 PPDA 8.3

5.8 Deep completions per 90 12.7

0.79 xPTS per 90 1.78

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Crystal Palace	Draw	Hoffenheim
Model	27%	24%	48%
Market	50%	24%	26%
Published	44%	24%	32%
Edge	-6%	0%	+6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded 2026-11-04 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Crystal Palace, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 1.88Now 1.92 +0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Crystal Palace	1.88	1.92	+0.04
Draw	3.83	3.95	+0.12
Hoffenheim	3.62	3.62	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Crystal Palace and Hoffenheim expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.38Crystal Palace

1.89Hoffenheim

Total expected goals: 3.27
Attack rating (Crystal Palace / Hoffenheim): 0.95 / 1.29
Defence rating (Crystal Palace / Hoffenheim): 1.22 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 6.2% 6.8% 4.3% 3.1% 1 4.3% 10.9% 9.4% 5.9% 4.3% 2 3.6% 6.8% 6.5% 4.1% 3.0% 3 1.7% 3.2% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Crystal Palace goals. Columns: Hoffenheim goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Crystal Palace	44%	2.27
	Draw	24%	4.14
	Hoffenheim	32%	3.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.58
	Under 2.5	37%	2.74
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.55
	No	35%	2.82
Double chance	1X (Crystal Palace or draw)	68%	1.47
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Hoffenheim)	56%	1.79
Handicap -1	Crystal Palace win by 2+	12%	8.09
	Push (exactly one goal)	15%	—