Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart

· Rams Park, Istanbul· Referee Chris Kavanagh

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Galatasaray to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GalatasarayDrawVfB Stuttgart

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGalatasarayDrawVfB Stuttgart
Model60%19%21%
Market47%23%31%
Published50%22%28%
Edge+3%-1%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Galatasaray below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Galatasaray, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 2.23Now 2.05 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Galatasaray2.232.05-0.18
Draw3.904.25+0.35
VfB Stuttgart2.833.12+0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Galatasaray and VfB Stuttgart expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.62Galatasaray
1.53VfB Stuttgart
Total expected goals
4.16
Attack rating (Galatasaray / VfB Stuttgart)
1.30 / 1.24
Defence rating (Galatasaray / VfB Stuttgart)
0.94 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 1 3.5% 6.9% 4.8% 2.5% 1.3% 2 5.4% 8.3% 6.3% 3.2% 1.7% 3 4.7% 7.2% 5.5% 2.8% 1.5% 4+ 5.8% 8.9% 6.8% 3.5% 1.9%

Rows: Galatasaray goals. Columns: VfB Stuttgart goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 60%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Galatasaray50%1.99
Draw22%4.61
VfB Stuttgart28%3.55
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.63
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.36
No27%3.75
Double chance1X (Galatasaray or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or VfB Stuttgart)50%2.01
Handicap -1Galatasaray win by 2+41%2.45
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Galatasaray and VfB Stuttgart recent form

Galatasaray 5W 0D 1L
VfB Stuttgart 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Galatasaray at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

VfB Stuttgart away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Galatasaray at home only, VfB Stuttgart away only.

Injuries & availability

Galatasaray absences

  • A. Unyay off the roster
  • A. Yilmaz off the roster
  • C. Guner off the roster
  • E. Aydin off the roster
  • K. Ayhan off the roster
  • K. Karatas off the roster

VfB Stuttgart absences

  • A. Stiller groin injury
  • D. Zagadou muscle injury
  • J. Diehl muscle injury
  • J. Vagnoman muscle injury
  • L. Sauer muscle injury
  • L. Stergiou off the roster
  • S. Drljaca off the roster

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Galatasaray lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 U. Çakır
  2. 4 I. Jakobs
  3. 42 A. Bardakcı
  4. 6 D. Sánchez
  5. 7 R. Sallai
  6. 99 M. Lemina
  7. 34 L. Torreira
  8. 53 B. Yılmaz
  9. 83 A. Batrakov
  10. 11 Y. Akgün
  11. 45 V. Osimhen

Bench: E. Bitshiabu, Gabriel Sara, L. Sané, E. Elmalı, L. Ugochukwu, G. Güvenç, İ. Gündoğan, D. Gül, J. Yılmaz, Rafael Leão, Renato Nhaga, W. Singo

VfB Stuttgart lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 F. Bredlow
  2. 7 M. Mittelstädt
  3. 24 J. Chabot
  4. 3 R. Hendriks
  5. 10 C. Führich
  6. 16 A. Karazor
  7. 21 G. Prömel
  8. 18 J. Leweling
  9. 11 B. El Khannouss
  10. 9 E. Demirović
  11. 26 D. Undav

Bench: A. Al Dakhil, Tiago Tomás, L. Jaquez, D. Pejčinović, L. Assignon, N. Nartey, Finn Jeltsch, M. Funk, D. Seimen, Jarzinho Ataide Adriano de Nascimento Malanga, Y. Spalt

Other League Stage - 4 fixtures

Before and after this match