Updated

England Championship · Matchday 14

Birmingham vs Millwall

· St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham· Referee David Webb

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Birmingham to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BirminghamDrawMillwall

Birmingham vs Millwall: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBirminghamDrawMillwall
Model55%23%22%
Market49%26%25%
Published50%25%24%
Edge+2%-1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.25.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Birmingham vs Millwall odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Birmingham, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 2.00Now 1.92 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Birmingham2.001.92-0.08
Draw3.603.60+0.00
Millwall3.503.75+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Birmingham and Millwall expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.05Birmingham
1.25Millwall
Total expected goals
3.29
Attack rating (Birmingham / Millwall)
1.30 / 1.19
Defence rating (Birmingham / Millwall)
0.86 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Birmingham vs Millwall score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 3.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 1 6.6% 10.4% 5.9% 2.5% 1.0% 2 7.8% 9.7% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 5.3% 6.6% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 4.3% 5.4% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6%

Rows: Birmingham goals. Columns: Millwall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Birmingham vs Millwall goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Birmingham vs Millwall

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Birmingham50%1.98
Draw25%3.95
Millwall24%4.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.78
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.59
No37%2.70
Double chance1X (Birmingham or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Millwall)50%2.02
Handicap -1Birmingham win by 2+33%2.99
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Birmingham and Millwall recent form

Birmingham 4W 1D 1L
Millwall 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Birmingham at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
1.17
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Millwall away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-3
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Birmingham at home only, Millwall away only.

Injuries & availability

Birmingham absences

  • A. Priske health problems
  • M. Leonard achilles tendon injury
  • Paik Seung-Ho health problems

Millwall absences

  • C. De Norre muscle injury
  • F. Marschall injury
  • J. Metcalfe yellow cards
  • L. Jensen muscle injury
  • M. Luongo knee injury
  • M. Servais inactive
  • T. Arconte ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Birmingham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 21 R. Allsop
  2. 20 A. Cochrane
  3. 4 C. Klarer
  4. 5 P. Neumann
  5. 2 E. Laird
  6. 14 J. Solis
  7. 24 T. Iwata
  8. 17 L. Millar
  9. 28 J. Stansfield
  10. 16 P. Roberts
  11. 18 M. Bird

Bench: L. Buchanan, Carlos Vicente, D. Gray, S. Wright, T. Gardner-Hickman, B. Osayi-Samuel, Bradley Mayo, L. Vázquez, M. Ducksch

Millwall lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 15 M. Crocombe
  2. 3 Zak Norton Sturge
  3. 5 J. Cooper
  4. 6 C. Taylor
  5. 2 J. Osei-Tutu
  6. 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
  7. 13 L. Dykes
  8. 22 K. Lisbie
  9. 25 L. Cundle
  10. 10 C. Neghli
  11. 9 M. Ivanović

Bench: T. Arconte, R. Esse, E. Baggott, D. Kelly, M. Sykes, J. Coburn, D. Batth, Y. Issoufou, G. Evans

Birmingham vs Millwall head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Birmingham 2 · draws 4 · Millwall 4.

BirminghamDrawsMillwall
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-25Millwall3-0BirminghamEngland Championship
2025-11-04Birmingham4-0MillwallEngland Championship
2024-03-09Millwall1-0BirminghamChampionship
2023-09-02Birmingham1-1MillwallChampionship
2023-04-18Millwall0-1BirminghamChampionship
2022-11-02Birmingham0-0MillwallChampionship
2022-04-23Birmingham2-2MillwallChampionship
2021-12-04Millwall3-1BirminghamChampionship
2021-02-17Millwall2-0BirminghamChampionship
2020-11-28Birmingham0-0MillwallChampionship

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match