Updated

England Championship · Matchday 14

Portsmouth vs Swansea

· Fratton Park, Portsmouth· Referee Matthew Corlett

Full time3 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Swansea to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PortsmouthDrawSwansea

Portsmouth vs Swansea: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePortsmouthDrawSwansea
Model36%31%33%
Market33%29%37%
Published34%30%36%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Portsmouth vs Swansea odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Swansea, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 2.63Now 2.51 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Portsmouth2.602.80+0.20
Draw3.383.17-0.21
Swansea2.632.51-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Portsmouth and Swansea expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Portsmouth
1.15Swansea
Total expected goals
2.34
Attack rating (Portsmouth / Swansea)
0.91 / 1.13
Defence rating (Portsmouth / Swansea)
0.84 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Portsmouth vs Swansea score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.9% 9.7% 6.3% 2.4% 0.9% 1 10.2% 14.5% 7.6% 2.9% 1.1% 2 6.9% 7.9% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 3 2.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Portsmouth goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Portsmouth vs Swansea goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Portsmouth vs Swansea

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Portsmouth34%2.94
Draw30%3.36
Swansea36%2.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.41
Under 2.558%1.71
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.04
No51%1.96
Double chance1X (Portsmouth or draw)64%1.57
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Swansea)66%1.52
Handicap -1Swansea win by 2+14%7.00
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Portsmouth and Swansea recent form

Portsmouth 3W 2D 1L
Swansea 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Portsmouth at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Swansea away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-2
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Portsmouth at home only, Swansea away only.

Injuries & availability

Portsmouth absences

  • B. Arthur back injury
  • C. Bishop knee injury
  • C. Ogilvie knee injury
  • J. Swift knee injury
  • K. Anderson overload
  • L. Brooke-Smith ankle injury

Swansea absences

  • C. Burgess achilles tendon injury
  • M. K. Yeo injury
  • Ronald hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Portsmouth lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Schmid
  2. 16 J. Meghoma
  3. 55 M. Dia
  4. 5 R. Poole
  5. 24 T. Devlin
  6. 37 I. Mohamed
  7. 38 E. Adams
  8. 17 T. Shade
  9. 10 A. Segecic
  10. 27 O. Bailey
  11. 29 M. Milovanović

Bench: C. Shaughnessy, M. Pack, A. Kamara, R. Shein, T. Waddingham, Z. Swanson, J. Murphy, R. Kavuma McQueen, D. Bielica

Swansea lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 22 L. Vigouroux
  2. 14 J. Tymon
  3. 23 S. Welsh
  4. 3 J. Seelt
  5. 26 F. Lissah
  6. 6 M. Stamenić
  7. 4 J. Fulton
  8. 17 Gonçalo Franco
  9. 7 M. Widell
  10. 33 A. Idah
  11. 30 Joseph Okopu

Bench: A. Fisher, J. Key, B. Cabango, E. Just, Z. Vipotnik, J. Monga, Tom Iorpenda, R. Stewart

Portsmouth vs Swansea head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 1 · draws 1 · Swansea 2.

PortsmouthDrawsSwansea
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-10Portsmouth1-2SwanseaEngland Championship
2025-12-09Swansea1-0PortsmouthEngland Championship
2025-01-01Portsmouth4-0SwanseaChampionship
2024-11-30Swansea2-2PortsmouthChampionship

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match