Watford 1-0 Lincoln: Prediction vs Result 03.11.26

Watford vs Lincoln: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Watford	Draw	Lincoln
Model	37%	25%	37%
Market	36%	28%	36%
Published	36%	27%	36%
Edge	0%	-1%	0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Watford vs Lincoln odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Watford, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-30.

Opened 2.30Now 2.61 +0.31

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Watford	2.30	2.61	+0.31
Draw	3.45	3.36	-0.09
Lincoln	2.90	2.62	-0.28

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Watford and Lincoln expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.62Watford

1.63Lincoln

Total expected goals: 3.25
Attack rating (Watford / Lincoln): 0.78 / 0.97
Defence rating (Watford / Lincoln): 1.38 / 1.43

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Watford vs Lincoln score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 5.3% 5.1% 2.8% 1.6% 1 5.3% 11.3% 8.3% 4.5% 2.6% 2 5.1% 8.3% 6.8% 3.7% 2.1% 3 2.8% 4.5% 3.7% 2.0% 1.2% 4+ 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.7%

Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Lincoln goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Watford vs Lincoln goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Watford vs Lincoln

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Watford	36%	2.75
	Draw	27%	3.66
	Lincoln	36%	2.76
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.59
	Under 2.5	37%	2.70
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.53
	No	35%	2.90
Double chance	1X (Watford or draw)	64%	1.57
	12 (either side)	73%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Lincoln)	64%	1.57
Handicap -1	Watford win by 2+	19%	5.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Watford and Lincoln recent form

Watford 1W 0D 5L

Lincoln 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Watford at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-1-2
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 1.50
Clean sheets: 1 of 6

They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.

Lincoln away

Record (W-D-L): 3-1-2
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.17
Clean sheets: 3 of 6

They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Watford at home only, Lincoln away only.