Updated

England Championship · Matchday 14

West Brom vs Southampton

· The Hawthorns, West Bromwich· Referee Josh Smith

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was West Brom to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
West BromDrawSouthampton

West Brom vs Southampton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWest BromDrawSouthampton
Model33%27%40%
Market41%28%31%
Published39%28%34%
Edge-2%0%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

West Brom vs Southampton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on West Brom, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-31.

Opened 2.55Now 2.30 -0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
West Brom2.552.30-0.25
Draw3.703.36-0.34
Southampton2.543.00+0.46

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

West Brom and Southampton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.40West Brom
1.57Southampton
Total expected goals
2.97
Attack rating (West Brom / Southampton)
1.16 / 1.43
Defence rating (West Brom / Southampton)
0.90 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

West Brom vs Southampton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 7.0% 6.4% 3.3% 1.9% 1 6.1% 12.4% 8.9% 4.6% 2.6% 2 5.0% 7.9% 6.2% 3.2% 1.8% 3 2.3% 3.7% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 4+ 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: West Brom goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

West Brom vs Southampton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for West Brom vs Southampton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2West Brom39%2.57
Draw28%3.62
Southampton34%2.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.76
Under 2.543%2.32
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.65
No39%2.55
Double chance1X (West Brom or draw)66%1.50
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Southampton)61%1.64
Handicap -1West Brom win by 2+15%6.48
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

West Brom and Southampton recent form

West Brom 3W 1D 2L
Southampton 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

West Brom at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Southampton away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: West Brom at home only, Southampton away only.

Injuries & availability

West Brom absences

  • M. Johnston broken leg
  • N. Galves knee injury
  • T. Collyer injury

Southampton absences

  • C. Larin hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

West Brom lineup · 4-4-1-1

  1. 1 M. O’Leary
  2. 4 C. Styles
  3. 6 G. Campbell
  4. 2 C. Mepham
  5. 18 B. Pereira
  6. 21 I. Price
  7. 17 O. Diakité
  8. 8 J. Molumby
  9. 20 R. Nzingoula
  10. 7 F. Myhre
  11. 11 J. Morgan

Bench: N. Phillips, B. Stewart, M. Ingram, A. Heggebø, C. Townsend, T. Bany, Harry Whitwell, R. Parmar, M. Crowther

Southampton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Daniel Peretz
  2. 3 R. Manning
  3. 13 K. Schlotterbeck
  4. 5 J. Stephens
  5. 14 J. Bree
  6. 30 J. Ward-Prowse
  7. 4 F. Downes
  8. 23 S. Edozie
  9. 10 F. Azaz
  10. 27 K. Matsuki
  11. 28 D. Mubama

Bench: Z. Abbott, L. Dobbin, N. Wood-Gordon, T. Fellows, G. Long, Cameron Bragg, Welington, Princewill Ehibhatiomhan, Barnaby Williams

West Brom vs Southampton head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: West Brom 1 · draws 2 · Southampton 7.

West BromDrawsSouthampton
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-11West Brom1-1SouthamptonEngland Championship
2025-12-09Southampton3-2West BromEngland Championship
2024-05-17Southampton3-1West BromChampionship
2024-05-12West Brom0-0SouthamptonChampionship
2024-02-16West Brom0-2SouthamptonChampionship
2023-11-11Southampton2-1West BromChampionship
2021-04-12West Brom3-0SouthamptonPremier League
2020-10-04Southampton2-0West BromPremier League
2018-02-17West Brom1-2SouthamptonFA Cup
2018-02-03West Brom2-3SouthamptonPremier League

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match