Wrexham vs Middlesbrough preview
In the upcoming fixture between Wrexham and Middlesbrough, the 1X2 probabilities show Middlesbrough at 55%, compared to Wrexham's 22%. The expected goals suggest a similar trend, with Wrexham at 1.27 and Middlesbrough at 2.17. This indicates a strong likelihood of a Middlesbrough victory, with the most likely scoreline projected at 1-2.
However, Wrexham's recent form includes two wins in their last five matches, which could influence the outcome. While both teams to score stands at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%, Wrexham's ability to capitalize on home advantage could challenge Middlesbrough's dominance. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: model vs market
| Source | Wrexham | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 22% | 57% |
| Market | 21% | 23% | 55% |
| Published | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Middlesbrough, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 3.90 | 4.45 | +0.55 |
| Draw | 3.76 | 4.03 | +0.27 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.81 | 1.69 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wrexham and Middlesbrough expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.44
- Attack rating (Wrexham / Middlesbrough)
- 0.88 / 1.62
- Defence rating (Wrexham / Middlesbrough)
- 1.10 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wrexham goals. Columns: Middlesbrough goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wrexham | 21% | 4.74 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Middlesbrough | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wrexham or draw) | 44% | 2.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Middlesbrough) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Wrexham and Middlesbrough recent form
Wrexham
2W 1D 3L
Middlesbrough
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wrexham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Middlesbrough away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wrexham at home only, Middlesbrough away only.
Injuries & availability
Wrexham absences
-
J. Windass
ankle injury
-
L. Cacace
calf injury
-
N. Broadhead
thigh injury
-
S. Revan
hamstring injury
Middlesbrough absences
-
A. Jones
calf injury
- R. Pukstas injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Wrexham 0 · draws 2 · Middlesbrough 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Middlesbrough | 1-0 | Wrexham | League Cup |
| 2026-05-02 | Wrexham | 2-2 | Middlesbrough | England Championship |
| 2025-10-25 | Middlesbrough | 1-1 | Wrexham | England Championship |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Watford vs Lincoln 2026-11-03
- Preston vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Blackburn vs Stoke City 2026-11-03
- Derby v Norwich — match page 2026-11-03
- Birmingham v Millwall — match page 2026-11-03
- West Brom vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Cardiff vs West Ham 2026-11-04
- Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers — team news & stats 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- Wrexham, previous: Sheffield Utd – Wrexham, 2026-10-30
- Wrexham, next: Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers prediction
- Middlesbrough, previous: Middlesbrough vs Charlton: odds and pick
- Middlesbrough, next: Watford – Middlesbrough, 2026-11-07