Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers preview
In the upcoming fixture between Bristol City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, the 1X2 probabilities show Wolverhampton Wanderers at 44%, while Bristol City sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline projected by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 12%. This indicates a strong expectation for a narrow victory for Wolverhampton, supported by their recent form of W-W-D-W-L-L compared to Bristol City's W-D-L-L-D-W.
However, the prediction could be challenged by the fact that both teams have a 46% chance of scoring, suggesting that Bristol City could find a way to disrupt Wolverhampton's defense. Additionally, the expected goals are 0.99 for Bristol City and 1.24 for Wolverhampton Wanderers, further emphasizing the potential for a close match.
Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Bristol City | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| Published | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wolverhampton Wanderers, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 3.40 | 3.25 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.40 | -0.05 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.10 | 2.20 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bristol City and Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.23
- Attack rating (Bristol City / Wolverhampton Wanderers)
- 0.85 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Bristol City / Wolverhampton Wanderers)
- 0.91 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bristol City goals. Columns: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol City | 29% | 3.46 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bristol City or draw) | 58% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Wolverhampton Wanderers) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+ | 18% | 5.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bristol City and Wolverhampton Wanderers recent form
Bristol City
2W 2D 2L
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bristol City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Wolverhampton Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bristol City at home only, Wolverhampton Wanderers away only.
Injuries & availability
Bristol City absences
-
E. Adebayo
inactive
- N. Eile illness
-
R. Dickie
knee injury
Wolverhampton Wanderers absences
- B. Traore injury
- B. Traore injury
- G. Konan knee injury
- N. Djiga groin injury
-
R. Jimenez
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bristol City 2 · draws 1 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Bristol City | 1-2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | England FA Cup |
| 2019-02-17 | Bristol City | 0-1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | FA Cup |
| 2017-12-30 | Bristol City | 1-2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Championship |
| 2017-09-12 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-3 | Bristol City | Championship |
| 2017-04-08 | Bristol City | 3-1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Championship |
| 2016-12-26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-2 | Bristol City | Championship |
| 2016-03-08 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-1 | Bristol City | Championship |
| 2015-11-03 | Bristol City | 1-0 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Championship |
| 2014-01-25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3-1 | Bristol City | League One |
| 2013-08-17 | Bristol City | 1-2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | League One |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Watford vs Lincoln 2026-11-03
- Preston vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Blackburn vs Stoke City 2026-11-03
- Derby v Norwich — match page 2026-11-03
- Birmingham v Millwall — match page 2026-11-03
- West Brom vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Cardiff vs West Ham 2026-11-04
- Wrexham v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- Bristol City, previous: Bolton v Bristol City analysis
- Bristol City, next: Bristol City v Norwich analysis
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, previous: Wolverhampton Wanderers – Cardiff, 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, next: Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers prediction