ST Mirren vs Hibernian: model vs market
| Source | ST Mirren | Draw | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hibernian, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren | 3.42 | 3.12 | -0.29 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.59 | -0.03 |
| Hibernian | 1.96 | 2.15 | +0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ST Mirren and Hibernian expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (ST Mirren / Hibernian)
- 0.81 / 0.79
- Defence rating (ST Mirren / Hibernian)
- 1.24 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ST Mirren goals. Columns: Hibernian goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ST Mirren vs Hibernian
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Mirren | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Hibernian | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ST Mirren or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Hibernian) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hibernian win by 2+ | 14% | 7.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
ST Mirren and Hibernian recent form
ST Mirren
1W 0D 5L
Hibernian
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ST Mirren at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hibernian away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: ST Mirren at home only, Hibernian away only.
Expected lineups
ST Mirren lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Chapman
- 3 D. John
- 53 Henry Fieldson
- 22 M. Fraser
- 47 C. Ramsay
- 13 A. Gogić
- 8 R. Carr
- 16 L. Thomas
- 88 K. Phillips
- 23 C. Mochrie
- 9 Eseosa Sule
Bench: J. Richardson, L. Donnelly, Louis Jackson, Samu, J. Young, F. Taylor, C. McEvoy, P. Nsio
Hibernian lineup · 3-4-1-2
- 1 R. Sallinger
- 5 M. Ivezić
- 3 A. Mayor
- 6 J. Kerr
- 19 N. Cadden
- 11 J. Newell
- 8 J. Mulligan
- 25 F. Passlack
- 17 J. McGrath
- 14 M. Chaiwa
- 7 O. Elding
Bench: G. Hanley, Alex Williams, J. Smith, J. Iredale, T. Klidje, A. Šuto, Z. Bruce, R. Matondo, A. Abdulai
ST Mirren vs Hibernian head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: ST Mirren 3 · draws 4 · Hibernian 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Hibernian | 2-0 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-11-08 | ST Mirren | 0-3 | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-08-31 | Hibernian | 1-1 | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership |
| 2025-05-14 | ST Mirren | 2-2 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2025-02-16 | ST Mirren | 0-0 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2024-11-09 | Hibernian | 1-2 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2024-08-04 | ST Mirren | 3-0 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2024-02-03 | Hibernian | 0-3 | ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 2023-11-08 | ST Mirren | 2-2 | Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2023-09-27 | Hibernian | 4-2 | ST Mirren | League Cup |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Celtic v Dundee Utd — match page 2026-10-28
- Aberdeen vs Falkirk 2026-10-28
- Dundee v Kilmarnock — match page 2026-10-28
- ST Johnstone vs Motherwell 2026-10-28
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers — team news & stats 2026-10-28
Before and after this match
- ST Mirren, previous: ST Mirren – Dundee, 2026-10-24
- ST Mirren, next: Motherwell v ST Mirren analysis
- Hibernian, previous: Hibernian vs Celtic prediction
- Hibernian, next: Aberdeen vs Hibernian prediction