Rangers vs Aberdeen preview
In the upcoming match between Rangers and Aberdeen, Rangers hold a 62% probability of winning, while Aberdeen sits at 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, which occurs at a rate of 12%. However, the prediction could be challenged by Aberdeen's recent form, as they have won 1 of their last 6 matches.
Rangers have an expected goals figure of 1.86, compared to Aberdeen's 0.78. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 49%, while both teams to score is at 47%. Rangers have dominated their last 4 encounters with Aberdeen, winning all 4 matches. The confidence grade for this forecast is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Rangers vs Aberdeen: model vs market
| Source | Rangers | Draw | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Rangers and Aberdeen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Rangers / Aberdeen)
- 1.20 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Rangers / Aberdeen)
- 0.72 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rangers vs Aberdeen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rangers goals. Columns: Aberdeen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rangers vs Aberdeen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rangers vs Aberdeen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rangers | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Aberdeen | 14% | 7.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rangers or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Aberdeen) | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rangers win by 2+ | 37% | 2.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rangers and Aberdeen recent form
Rangers
4W 2D 0L
Aberdeen
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rangers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aberdeen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rangers at home only, Aberdeen away only.
Rangers vs Aberdeen head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Rangers 4 · draws 0 · Aberdeen 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Aberdeen | 0-1 | Rangers | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-03-21 | Rangers | 4-1 | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-11 | Aberdeen | 0-2 | Rangers | Scotland Premiership |
| 2026-01-06 | Rangers | 2-0 | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Motherwell vs ST Mirren 2026-10-31
- Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Falkirk vs Celtic 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Rangers, previous: Heart Of Midlothian v Rangers analysis
- Rangers, next: ST Mirren vs Rangers: odds and pick
- Aberdeen, previous: Aberdeen vs Falkirk prediction
- Aberdeen, next: Aberdeen vs Hibernian prediction